Home / Zuzolo Written Closing Commentary / Comments at the Close – 11/26/12

Comments at the Close – 11/26/12



Two dominant themes seem to have directed price‐action in the grains
since traders returned from the Thanksgiving holiday weekend: first,
early session gains on problematic South American weather and more bean
oil sales being announced by Unknown Destinations gave‐way to and was
cut‐short by poor weekly export inspections heading across the board.
Wheat, corn, and beans all missed trade estimates on Monday morning’s
report, and ever since this report was released, corn and beans saw an
erosion of their gains to the point where corn was back to steady.

In the midst of this row‐crop price weakness, the other dominant theme of
the trade so far this Monday has been KC Wheat finding buying support and
garnering weather premium as crop condition in this afternoon’s weekly
report is expected to drop again and fall deeper into record poor
territory for this time of year. And with mid‐day weather models
continuing to suggest no relief from this dryness for the next 10 days,
KC wheat has held‐onto most of its gains even with the weakening of the
corn and beans.

Heading into the close, with wheat finally finding support from the dry
plains, and with technical chart support holding in the corn and beans,
the trade still has to contend with the dry weather forecast for key
areas of Southern Brazil. Given this, grains held‐onto a positive close.


Profit‐taking by longs seemed to be the major theme in the livestock
markets as traders returned from the Thanksgiving Holiday. This profittaking
on Monday seemed to make sense given that both hogs and cattle
bucked the seasonal trend heading into the Thanksgiving Holiday—with both
hitting major highs by Friday’s close.

Lending fundamental weakness to the selling in cattle and hogs on Monday
were wobbly outside markets and a stronger bias in the grains. Bids on
cash cattle were also not available as traders on the floor expected
little business in the Plains States until Thursday.

As of Monday’s close, with about 2 weeks until expiration, the December
Hog Futures continued to hold nearly a $5 premium to the CME Cash Index.

Please Remember: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options, and
the impact of cycles or current events on prices may be already reflected in futures.

For More Information, Contact Mike Zuzolo At 765 471‐1600 or Online at www.globalanalytics.biz

Copyright, 2012 Global Commodity Analytics & Consulting LLC

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