4/1/13 GLOBAL COMMODITY ANALYTICS & CONSULTING LLC
CLOSING GRAIN COMMENTS:
It remained April Fool’s Day for the Bulls on Monday’s grain trade, with
corn bear‐spreading continuing to lead the other crops lower; as a
result, the May and July corn futures headed into the final bell over 6%
lower and fell to the lowest levels since the end of June last year.
With the declining prices in feed‐grains, demand on Monday really was
quite impressive; South Korea was reportedly in the process of booking
1.75 MMT of feed wheat and corn for July through September needs: in
addition, Japan was reportedly booking 1.2 MMT of feed wheat and corn as
well for April through June demand needs. But even with these fresh
exports, and better than expected weekly export inspections across the
board, grains couldn’t seem to muster any form of short‐covering due to
the likelihood that managed funds, who have been long corn for most of
the month of March, were still flushing‐out of positions.
Cold/Wet weather forecasts for the key corn & soy producing areas of the
country, did, however, seem to bring some support to new‐crop corn and
beans, with both holding mild, single‐digit losses heading into Monday’s
Monday afternoon after the close, we’ll see the first crop conditions
report for winter wheat since last November from Washington; we should
also get our first look from USDA on corn planting progress.
CLOSING LIVESTOCK COMMENTS:
Weaker grain prices over in the grain pits on Monday initially helped
push Feeder Cattle prices to new monthly highs, and by the middle of the
trading session helped take the hogs from down 60‐80 to up 60‐80 heading
into Monday’s close: April Hogs were able to reach new 3‐week highs in
Adding more support to the turnaround in the hogs seemed to be a flurry
of short‐covering after the market likely priced‐in what was considered a
mildly negative quarterly hogs and pigs report from Friday afternoon.
Yet, even with the report looking a little bearish, traders probably
noted that the information was dated and also likely noted that cash
demand from packers for market‐ready hogs seemed to pick‐up in the
aftermath of the Eastern Holiday.
While the hogs and feeders rallied, live cattle had a mild set‐back day
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