4/5/13 GLOBAL COMMODITY ANALYTICS & CONSULTING LLC
FRIDAY GRAIN MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
We saw continued nervousness Friday‐‐weaker equity market + bird flu.
While the beans continue to work a defensive tone, wheat shifted in the
price‐action, moving from negative to new daily highs: Probably comes on
the heels of some weather models continuing to call‐for sub 30 degree
temps for the hard red wheat belt early next week.
Spring wheat futures in Minneapolis also stronger, with the coldwet
weather showing up on planting progress numbers earlier this
week: South Dakota, for instance, has gotten 1% of its wheat
planted as of Monday’s figures. This compares with 25% planted a
year ago on the same date.
Corn continued to be pulled like taffy wheat and the continued doubledigit
losses in nearby beans.
Traders seem to be willing to take some of their profits on their
bear‐spreads, front‐end gained on new‐crop for a change.
I question how long this will last into next week given very heavy
rains slated for MO, TN, KY, and parts of the Delta.
Looming over the market as a whole heading into the weekend was North
Korea’s next move and whether that would increase trade tensions in the
FRIDAY LIVESTOCK MARKET HIGHLIGHTS
A big hit to the cattle and hog markets took place on Friday, on the
heels of the March Payrolls figure coming in much weaker than expected,
and that pushing the equities markets sharply lower, which in turn likely
created an environment in the hog and cattle pits of worries regarding
demand due to economic weakness.
So, with the equities sharply lower, the trade lost its demand enthusiasm
from earlier this week, and decided to side‐step the bird flu problems in
the Chinese poultry flock, and also decided to disregard the improving
cash fundamentals for hogs in particular—Midwestern packers were
reportedly short‐bought heading into the week and were bidding up for
delivery right away in some locations.
As we closed‐out Friday’s session, the 3% break in hogs and the 1% break
in cattle forced the April hogs to close lower for the week, and forced
the lead‐month live cattle to their old two week lows.
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