Negative for corn and soybeans

The report was negative with soybean and corn production in Brazil higher than last month. Soybean production was above the average trade estimate. Corn production was right at the high end of trade estimates.

U.S. corn ending stocks were 2.32 billion bushels, unchanged from last month. U.S. soybean ending stocks were 435 million bushels, up 15 million bushels. U.S. corn exports were unchanged, corn used for ethanol was up 50 million bushels. US soybean exports were down 25 million bushels, crush was up 10 million bushels.

Brazil soybean production was estimated at 108 million tons, up 4 million tons. Argentina soybean production was pegged at 55.5 million tons, unchanged from last month. Brazil corn production was estimated at 91.5 million tons, up 5 million tons from last month. Argentina corn production was 37.5 million tons, up 1 million ton.

Just before the report corn was down 1 cent, soybeans were down 2 cents, and wheat was down 1 cent. Shortly after the report corn was down 3 cents, soybeans down 10 cents,  and wheat was up 1 cent.

The bear camp has been clearly in control this week for corn and soybeans. Earlier today May CBOT corn was unchanged at $3.72, the high for the week was $3.83. The 50 moving average for May CBOT corn is $3.71 ½ while the 200 day moving average is $3.71 ¾. May CBOT soybeans this morning were at $10.16, down 6 cents for the day. They were high earlier this week at $10.36.

Demand numbers, especially U.S. exports for corn and soybeans will be closely watched. While many  expected ending stocks for 2016-17 corn and soybeans to be reduced, others were already looking at South America exports of corn and soybeans to increase with record production. That in turn could reduce our exports and allow ending stocks to increase. Short story, there are always two sides of the equation.

Traders were looking for small declines in US ending stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat. Last month USDA had the 2016-17 US corn ending stocks at 2.32 billion bushels, soybean ending stocks were 420 million bushels, and wheat ending stocks were 1.139 billion bushels.

World ending stocks for corn and soybeans were expected to increase slightly. World ending stocks for wheat were expected to be unchanged. A jump in Brazil soybean and corn production was expected. Last month USDA estimated Brazil’s soybean production at 104 million tons. Earlier this week, CONFAB in Brazil estimated soybean production at 107.6 million tons. They also estimated corn production in Brazil at 88.9 million tons. Both seem destined to increase based on great soybean harvest yields to date along with higher corn acres this year.

Producers have been active the past two weeks looking at their crop insurance coverages to finalize any changes they want to put in place for 2017. So far, few changes are taking place, at least in our office. The deadline for changes on 2017 corn and soybeans is March 15, 2017.

Later this month USDA will release their U.S. planting intentions report for U.S. grains on Friday, March 30. Many label that report as one of the most important reports that USDA will publish this year.  On that date traders will focus lots of attention to U.S. soybean acres. Some analysts are already suggesting U.S. soybean acres could climb above 90 million acres. Bear in mind that while we will see planting intentions on March 30, there will be a lag in seeing those acres numbers contained in the supply and demand tables for 2017-18. Those are not published until the May report on May 10 when USDA releases the first supply and demand reports for 2017-18 crops.

 

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