Report is bullish soybean, and wheat; somewhat negative corn

USDA estimates of U.S. corn acres were 90.9 million acres, soybean acres were 89.5 million acres, and wheat acres were 45.7 million acres.  June 1 corn stocks were 5.225 billion bushels, soybean stocks were 963 million bushels, and wheat stocks were 1.184 billion bushels.

Soybeans were higher due to less than expected stocks, wheat was higher due to spring wheat acres less than expected, corn was off the highs due to higher than expected stocks.

All eyes are upon USDA with two big reports, the June 30 Grain Stocks Report and the June 30 Acres Report. Grain stocks are all expected to be above those of last year. It is just a matter of how big the stocks are for corn, soybeans, and wheat. The trade was looking for corn stocks as of June 1 to be 5.123 billion bushels and compares to 4.711 billion bushels last year. Soybean stocks are estimated to be near 983 million bushels, last year they were 872 million bushels. Wheat stocks in the U.S. should be near 1.137 billion bushels, last year they were 976 million bushels.

Trader estimates had U.S. corn acres at 89.9 million acres. The March 31 USDA Planting Intentions Report had corn acres at 90 million acres. Last year the U.S. planted 94 million acres of corn. Traders estimated U.S. soybean acres at 89.75 million acres. The March number was 89.5 million acres while last year the U.S. planted 83.4 million acres of soybeans. Wheat acres should be near 46.1 million acres, the same number from the March USDA report. Last year they were 50.2 million wheat acres. Traders are expecting soybean acres to exceed corn acres for the first time since 1983.

Before the report corn was up 7 cents, soybeans down 1 cent, while wheat was up 20 cents or more as weather forecasts next week for the spring wheat areas of North Dakota are currently calling for temperatures of 100 to 105 degrees. That forecast is moving Kansas City and Chicago wheat higher as well. Mid-morning July CBOT wheat was trading at $5.01 which is up 21 cents, the highest level since late July 2016.

With the weather doing the typical July 4th holiday of extreme weather uncertainty and huge price volatility, keep in mind that the markets will close early on Monday at 1 pm EDT, no trade Monday evening, Tuesday day or evening. The CBOT will re-open on Wednesday at 9:30 am EDT. Price action at the 9:30 am Wednesday re-open could be up or down big numbers.

December CBOT corn prices during June had a range of $4.09-$3.74. November CBOT soybeans had a range in June of $9.58-$9.07 while July CBOT wheat had a range of $5.01 to $4.21. In good weather years prices typically peak in June and move lower into the fall harvest. With corn and soybean conditions below those seen last year, the price volatility in July and August could be swift and extreme.

Look for grain prices to quickly return to weather shortly.

 

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