Good rains are moving across the state today. We are keeping rain totals this morning at .25”-1” over about 70% of the state, and we are going to miss the really heavy action. Rains of 2” or more are likely in Michigan…but those storms look to pull northeast and move into Ontario, rather than heading this way. Still, this is a wet set up this morning, as we have been projecting, and it will put harvest action at a standstill.
We dry down tomorrow through Saturday. Yes, we still have a concern about lingering cloud cover tomorrow, but we do not think it really produces any new precipitation worth talking about. That being said, the clouds, if they hang around with any ferocity, will make for a damp feel, and very little dry down for the day. So, best case scenario, we can get these clouds to break up quickly tomorrow. Still, better sun is likely Friday and Saturday, as winds turn to the southwest and start to crank up. It should be pretty breezy in here on Saturday, which will promote good drying. Relative humidity values will be low, but will start to build over the weekend.
Strong winds continue Sunday and we are making some slight changes to the arrival of our next system as we finish the weekend. All warm frontal boundary related action now looks like it will miss the state to the north. So, we will be dry for Sunday morning and most of the afternoon. However, that allows the atmosphere to still be pretty charged ahead of the cold front coming in. Strong winds are indicative of a significant pressure and temperature change, and we think that better cold frontal rains (or even storms) are likely here. So, look for the rains to start in west and NW Ohio Sunday evening, and then continue across the state through the overnight. The front still should be clear of the region by Monday morning. We are going to adjust rain totals to .25”-.75” over about 75% of the state now, taking out the heavy rain potential and the longer rain duration up north, and just look for this cold front to rip through. The map above shows combined rain totals from the next two systems…today and Sunday night.
Next week stays dry. Temps will cool off significantly to start the period early in the week, but through the balance of the period, we will see a slow build to above normal levels. We keep this dry pattern a bit longer too, extending it into the start of the 11-16 day window. Our next system in the extended period is still heading our way, but has slowed a little bit, and now looks to hold off until closer to the 23rd. Rain totals have not dropped of…it’s more a matter of timing. So, we will keep rain totals at .25”-.75” over 75% of the state. But at least we see an extension of next week’s dry window, which should be conducive to field work.