Even though the past couple of days have made it feel like we never will get good drying back, sunshine will take more control of the state today and that will begin to drive temperatures up some. The dry weather continues tomorrow and will pair with stronger winds out of the southwest. This will increase our evaporation rates and lead to good dry down statewide. Temps will be back to above normal levels. Winds for Saturday should average 12-25 miles an hour with stronger gusts.
The next chance of rain we see is still on track for Sunday. Some models are bringing the front about 6 hours sooner, others are holding it off till late afternoon. No matter when it arrives, Sunday will be wet, but the rains will be done by midnight at the latest. We are keeping rains totals at .25”-.75” over about 75% of the state, but will skew many areas to the lower end of the range. The main reason for that is that the front looks like it may want to move faster, allowing for shorter duration rains in most places. The map above shows thoughts of cumulative rains for the event through midnight Sunday night.
We are happy to report no changes to our forecast for next week. We will be completely dry starting Monday morning and that pattern holds through the following Monday! We will have some cooler air in to start the week behind our Sunday front, but we should not see the lingering clouds and dampness that we saw this past week. Sunshine will help temps bounce quickly and the will see them climb to mostly above normal levels by late in the week, if not by midweek.
Evaporation rates will be near maximum by midweek and will hold through the end of the period as well, thanks to strong high pressure.
In the extended period, we have a front early on around the 24th that can bring up to .75” of rain to about 80% of the state, but it is followed up by another strong upper level high pressure dome. This will allow for some drying, but also cooler air to come in as we finish the month of October. We could see a second front around the 29th into the 30th that has half to 1.5” rain potential. However, the best rains from that front may stay farther west and north.