Sunshine should be a bigger player in the forecast today with high pressure in control. However, we are making some changes to the forecast for later this week, and those changes are for a wetter forecast solution. So, let’s dive right in!
Today looks just fine. Sunshine will help boost temps slightly, although strong southwest flow will have a bigger effect on temps the next two days. We still think we see the warmest air in here ahead of our first cold front Thursday. Still, today, we see nice improvement in the pattern, and it may actually be the best looking day for most of the state.
Tomorrow, clouds and moisture build up from the south and west. This may actually trigger minor spits and sprinkles over the central and east-central part of the state along with southern OH. Rain totals will be a tenth or less. By contrast, sun may be able to hold on most of the day in NW Ohio. Still the clouds and warmer air is a signal of an unsettled pattern overtaking us. The better rain chances develop overnight Wednesday night and through the day Thursday. However, cutting the action off Thursday and there can be some action continuing Friday. In fact, scattered shower chances now hold through Friday, Saturday, Sunday and the first half of next week. Instead of seeing a dry weather lull to finish the week, we look to be stuck in a pattern that brings several minor disturbance waves through the state before a final, strong cold front clears everything out next Tuesday morning. So, we are changing the forecast this morning to allow combined rain totals over 6 days (from Wednesday night through Tuesday) at .5”-1.5” over 80% of the state. Keep in mind…we are not calling for it to rain constantly through the 6 day window – far from it. However, there are plenty of increased chances, and at this point, it’s not worth it to try and “finesse” the forecast to try and talk up a dry period here or there, when it is likely those will be difficult to see on a larger scale. Gear up for more rain chances in the next week, but be ready to work around them if given the opportunity. The calling card of this moisture, at least through early Monday, will be somewhat hit and miss on a daily basis. The map above shows combined rain potential through next Tuesday.
We still look for colder air to return behind the front that finally leaves next Tuesday. However, we also should be dry for most of the rest of the week as those temps work back closer to normal or even a bit below. We kick off the extended period with a threat of action on the 13th and the 15th, but both fronts look relatively minor, and the potential for a strong front passing by to the south looks to stay well to the south.