Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — October 5, 2017

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We have a little bit of a damp pattern emerging today and tomorrow over the state, but may salvage a good part of the weekend if we are lucky. Today, we see scattered showers developing along a slowly moving, almost stagnant frontal boundary draped across the region. The action remains rather light, bringing a few hundredths to perhaps .3” over about 60% of the state. Tomorrow the wet forecast stays in place over northern Ohio, but rain retreats out of the south. Rains tomorrow will be most frequent north of US 30, where we can see .25”-.5” rains with coverage at 70% areas north of US 30, but only a few spits and sprinkles south of there. South of I-70 we have nothing for tomorrow. Saturday and Sunday are interesting. We see some rains developing to our west over IN and IL, but nothing of any consequence can get in here. We will keep clouds in the forecast, but not really look for anything more than spits and sprinkles for the weekend period. We may not see serious drying those days, but will not see moisture either.

The biggest push of rain into Ohio will come from late Sunday night right on through Monday. We have a surge of moisture coming up the old frontal boundary out of KY, ripping right across the heart of the state. Rains from late Sunday night through Tuesday morning will be from half to 3” over about 80% of the state. Only NW Ohio, north and west of a line from Toledo to Van Wert, will miss out of those rains Monday-Tuesday. The heaviest rains will be seen in the far eastern part of the state where the 3 inch totals can develop, while central and southern parts of the state may see a lot of 1”-2” rain totals. The map above shows potential cumulative rain totals from today through Tuesday midday.

The rest of the week should be dry over most of Ohio. The exception will be the NE corner, where we see lingering showers through Wednesday and into early Thursday. These are mostly lake enhanced little clusters, developing off of Lake Erie. We have no new frontal boundary action or systems moving in. It should be breezy across the state as we finish the week as well. By Saturday, we should see those winds full out southwest, bringing warmer air and significant drying.

The extended period remains dry to start with a strong upper level high pressure dome slow to leave. We may be able to stretch the dry period all the way through the 18th. However, the next front that is developing out west is strong and slow moving. That means we have a good chance of rain there for the 19th and 20th, potentially half to 1.5” over 90% of the state. The air behind that front will be dramatically different, and may bring us our first good chance of “first frost” type temperatures. This is 15 days out, so there is plenty of time for the front to modify and change track. However, so far, the only changes this front has made over the past few days is to slow down (strengthen) and pick up more moisture.  Either way, it does look like we will have another decent harvest window over the state after next Tuesday…but how soon we can take advantage rides purely on if we meet, exceed, or fall short of current expectations of rains from today through next Tuesday morning.

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