A very interesting set up to finish the week here in Ohio (side note: if you hear a meteorologist describe the weather as “interesting” 9 times out of 10, it’s not an exceptionally good thing!). Rain coverage geographically was fairly close to expectations yesterday, but the top end of the rain totals range far exceeded our expectations. Still, we see less moisture coverage in the short term, today and tomorrow. But, we do still have a strong batch of rain and thunderstorm action coming to finish the weekend, and unfortunately this morning we have to also raise the specter of feeling the effects of a tropical system early next week. The long and short of it all is that we have “plenty” of rain coming…much more than we need as we find ourselves in harvest season. Let’s break it down for you this morning.
Today we have moisture limited to the far northern part of the state. We had been talking about US 30 being a southern boundary for the showers today, but in all actuality, it may be a good 30-40 miles farther north of there. But, let’s not get too cute with it. We are dropping rain totals to .05”-.3” north of US 30 with coverage at 70%. South of there we see mixed clouds and sun. Saturday should feature partly sunny skies with gusty winds and surging warmth. There should not be any significant rain action before evening.
Saturday evening things get kicked up a notch. A strong front, the final kicker to this system we have been dealing with for several days, will sweep through. Rain and thunderstorms from 6PM Saturday night through 6AM Sunday can total .25”-1.5” with coverage at 90% of the state. We all should see some kind of rain. Storms can be strong to severe, but the magnitude of any strong storm will ultimately be capped by when it moves in. This will be a very “spring-like” thunderstorms set up. The map above shows rain potential through Sunday midday.
Sunday clearing will try to work in over the northern half to two thirds of the state. However, Sunday we also have Tropical Storm (or likely at that time minor Hurricane Nate) hitting the gulf coast. It is projected that front that sweeps through Saturday night (which will be just to our south and east Sunday afternoon) as a superhighway to truck the storm north-northeast. That can bring more rain back into the state from the south, perhaps getting into far southern OH by late Sunday afternoon. The rains develop further and spread dramatically Sunday overnight through Monday into early Tuesday. If the track of the storm remains come right across us, we can see rain totals from Sunday night through Tuesday morning at .5”-3” and coverage 100%. But the key here is that where the storm make landfall along the gulf coast will ultimately play into where the remains start to go and the track they have. The best we can tell you this morning is to prepare for lots of rain, and then check in with us again Monday morning for the latest. The map here shows model projections for Nate’s track.
The rest of the week should be dry over most of Ohio. We are taking rains out of NE Ohio for midweek, instead looking at just clouds. Our thought is that the strength of the remains of Nate will take any lingering moisture from the atmosphere and drag it off to the northeast. So, no rain statewide from Tuesday through Friday. Early Saturday we may have to deal with a few showers in NW Ohio bringing up to .25”, but the rest of the state misses out, and we should see a fairly dry Sunday too in all areas.
The extended period is getting some better definition this morning and is also getting wetter. We have a front that is taking its own sweet time developing and stretching out over areas to our west next week finally moving in for the 16th into the 17th. It should bring .25”-1” over 100% of the state, and then a second strong front around 20th and 21st that can bring another .25”-1.5” of rain over 80% of the state. Those two systems in the extended period can bring two stages of cooler weather in, and we may be looking at some potential first frost temperature levels after the 21st.