Sunny, cool and dry air will remain in place today as strong high pressure finds itself positioned right on top of us. The dry pattern holds over the state today through the first part of Sunday. We may actually be able to see south winds sneak in tomorrow as this first high moves off to the east, which would allow for some moderation in temps as we finish the week, but it will be a short lived south push. A second high pressure dome will re-emerge for Saturday. Look for a chilly start today, and a similar chilly start to Saturday.
We continue to see our next chance of moisture coming Sunday, but the system looks to delay about 8-12 hours coming in from the west. That means we should start to see clouds build Sunday mid-morning, and precipitation trying to develop mid to late Sunday afternoon. The best showers will be Sunday evening through to early Monday morning. The focal point of the heaviest rains may be trying to shift south, and rains are likely still hanging on after sunrise Monday morning over extreme southern parts of Ohio, near the river. We will leave rain totals alone at .05”-.4”, but will pull coverage back closer to 70%. The map above is a snapshot of action Sunday evening.
Dry weather is back following that front for later Monday afternoon on through at least Tuesday. Clouds may hold on longer in the far south and east parts of the state, but sunshine will be back quickly for the rest of us. Wednesday looks interesting. Our next wave is still on track to pop up over the state Wednesday afternoon, but it is trying to shift east somewhat. We are not changing our forecast at the moment, and we want to see some different confirmation data to back up any potential change. At the moment we will keep rain in Wednesday, shifting them back to the afternoon and overnight, looking for .05”-.5”, but pull coverage back to 70%. We may have to drop coverage even more if the eastern development holds. Ahead of the system, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, we should see winds go south, starting to moderate temps. That south flow may end up holding even after the scattered rains leave.
A stronger frontal complex is starting to show signs of development toward the end of the 10-day period. This will bring rains from .2”-.6” in over the state for Saturday the 18th into early Sunday the 19th. Coverage could be as much as 90%, but this storm is in the early stages of coming together. We have seen these storms go through multiple changes as they get closer to arrival here. South winds ahead of it keep temps near to slightly above normal the second half of next week, and could help enhance precipitation.
The extended period still looks pretty tranquil, at least for the start of it. We have high pressure in control from the 20th through at least the 22nd. There still is the potential for a stronger frontal complex coming together close to or on Thanksgiving, but confidence is low at this time. If it still comes together, it has potential for half to 1.5” rains. But…don’t get bummed out about Turkey Day just yet…we think this system can easily modify, track differently, or even just fall apart.