Two and a half more fully dry days over the region today and tomorrow as sunshine remains the dominant player. Clouds will likely start to increase tomorrow evening, although a full thickening of clouds will hold off until we get to Sunday morning. Temps will be cool, but should start to really build up tomorrow ahead of our next frontal boundary arrival on Sunday.
Rains arrive Sunday mid-afternoon and will continue off and on through the overnight Sunday night. We expect showers to give a few hundredths to up to .4” over about 70% of the state.
Dry weather is back for Monday afternoon and Tuesday. Sunshine should be dominant for the period, particularly on Tuesday, with south winds start developing Tuesday ahead of our next potential wave coming in Wednesday. Those south winds will moderate temps for at least midweek, and we think even most of the balance of the week. Rains look stronger again this morning, with better coverage, and that means we will put .2”-.75” rains in over a full 80% of the state. The map above shows a snapshot of the set up around midday on Wednesday.
Our next wave is in for the last part of the week next week and weekend. Models are in some disagreement on when and how the front moves through. We look for .2”-.6” rains over 80% of the state for anywhere from the 17th through the 19th. We have plenty of confidence in the system’s development. Timing is where we are still somewhat up in the air. An arrival around the 19th would be where our bias is at this point, matching our previous forecasts, but models have a wide range of solutions at this time. Therefore, we are keeping our forecast the same for now. South winds ahead of the system keep temps near to slightly above normal the second half of next week, and could help enhance precipitation and strength
In the extended period, while high pressure remains in control early on, we still are keeping an eye on the period just ahead of and through the thanksgiving holiday. A strong front still has the potential to make life interesting in that period with rains up to 1.5”.