Clouds are on the increase this morning and we still expect to see some rain in here later this afernoon and evening. This system brings a few hundredths to .4” moisture to the state through midnight tonight. It will be somewhat spotty, with coverage at 70%, but many areas will be on the low end of the range. The best rains likely happen earlier in the afternoon back to our west in Indiana. Behind this front, breezy conditions are in tomorrow. Clouds may hold on longer due to strong northwest flow, but we at least get by with no new precipitation tomorrow.
Our strong frontal complex is still on the way for the weekend. Clouds increase Friday afternoon and we see rains from Friday night through the day Saturday. They start light, but pick up intensity through Saturday and can lead to some pretty good totals. We are leaving rain totals at .25”-.75” over 90% of the state through sunset Saturday night. We can’t completely rule out some 1” totals on a localized basis. The map above shows combined rains today through the weekend.
Drier for Sunday and Monday, the same outlook we have been promoting for that period for the past few forecasts. However, we are making some changes for next week. We are going drier from Tuesday forward as the next system we had been projecting for arrival next Tuesday has shifted south. Moisture actually looks to get locked up to the south over the Lower Mississippi valley at midweek. So, we stay dry for Tuesday right on through the end of the week. But cold air looks more impressive now for Thanksgiving Day and on through the balance of the holiday weekend. A strong surface high comes out of Canada and parks right on top of the eastern US. This keeps moisture locked up well to the south, but puts temps below normal right on through the holiday weekend.
In the extended period, we may see some of that moisture from the Deep South move into the OH valley late next Sunday as the cold core high starts to move off to the north and east. That looks to allow a more active pattern to gain ground again, with rains developing around Thursday the 30th. The rains will be under a half an inch and will favor the southern part of the state if things play out as we see them right now.
Overall, the biggest headlines this morning are the potential for heavy rain still this weekend, drier weather next week, and a cold push for the holiday weekend.