We should stay dry for the entire day today over the state. Warmer air will try to emerge this afternoon as south winds start to develop. Scattered showers begin after sunset, and will intensify from the midnight hour through the day Saturday. We think precipitation will ultimately linger through the first half of Sunday, and rains can end as sloppy wet snow over the northern half of the state. We won’t even rule out some minor accumulations in NE OH, although this is not going to be a big deal. We turn much colder on Sunday behind the frontal passage. We are increasing the top end of our forecast just a bit, putting rain totals at .25”-2” over 100% of the state from tonight through about early afternoon Sunday. However, we do not think the 2 inch rain totals will be as widespread as this model map suggests. We think 1”-1.25” rain totals are the better call for widespread heavy rains. The map shows cumulative precipitation for this event through Sunday morning.
Dry for Monday through next Saturday. Temperatures will yo-yo significantly through that dry period. Cold air holds for Monday, but we see temperatures quickly moderating on Tuesday to near and slightly above normal levels. That will be short lived, as cold air returns for Wednesday and most of Thursday. We are making a tweak to the temperature forecast from there, though, because we see temps starting to warm Thursday (Thanksgiving) evening and will they will climb to above normal levels to finish the week and weekend. The cold Canadian air that was projected to hold through the holiday weekend has weakened and will be pushed back farther north.
Scattered showers are in for next Sunday, the 26th. We see a few hundredths to .3” rain totals over 70% of the state.
In the extended period, we continue to see mostly dry weather for the 27th through the 30th. Our next frontal boundary starts to impact the state around the 1st of December. Precipitation totals remain unimpressive, so we will stay at .25” or less.