Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — November 20, 2017

We can expect mostly dry weather for the next week or so, but temperatures still look like they will be all over the place. We have a few concerns about a frontal passage tomorrow night into Wednesday, but other than that, we may be able to make it all the way into next week before we see our next significant chance of precipitation. Cold air blasted into the state yesterday behind our very wet Saturday-Sunday morning system. That cold air remains here as we start the day today, but changes are afoot. We start to see a shift in winds later this afternoon, with strong southwest winds likely from tonight through tomorrow. Those winds will take temps to above normal levels tomorrow. Sunshine should be a big player today and tomorrow, although with a potential rapid temperature rise, we could see fog in spots tomorrow morning.

A cold front moves through tomorrow night after midnight through early Wednesday. There is no precipitation threat to the west, but we feel that we need to leave the door open to some light action in north central and northeast OH from midnight tomorrow night to 8 AM Wednesday morning. Spits, sprinkles or light snow flakes is all we are concerned about at this time, with no more than a few hundredths of an inch to .1” of liquid available as the front passes. But…its enough we do not want to go through this forecast without mentioning. A large part of the state sees nothing. The bigger story will probably be the dramatic fall off in temps again, with Wednesday and Thanksgiving Day Thursday ending up below normal. Winds shift back to the NW, aiding the cool down.

The roller coaster decides to go back up hill from late Thursday night through the rest of the week and weekend. Temperatures climb for Friday with strong southwest winds returning to the region. We should see above normal highs for Friday and Saturday statewide. Again, we go through these temp changes with no precipitation.

A front still looks to move in for this coming Sunday. However, moisture availability does not look to be as impressive this morning. In fact, this front for Sunday may end up looking more like our front for tomorrow night – a wind shift bringing colder air, but not much else. For now, we will leave a chance for minor spits and sprinkles, but want Mother Nature to prove there is more with the system before going more than that. Either way, we go colder again for the finish of the weekend and start of next week.

The next good threat of precipitation develops at midweek next week. On Wednesday, the 29th, we see nice moisture moving in from the west. Temps are going to be near normal, and should be warm enough to bring mostly rain. We may see a bit of wet snow early in the morning in north central and northeast Indiana if moisture arrives while we are still near our morning lows. However, we really are looking for .2”-.6” of rain over 80% of the state. This front should move through relatively quickly.

For the extended 11-16 day forecast window, we have a strong storm complex still on the way for early December…looking for arrival late the 1st and lingering through the 3rd. This system has moisture potential of .25”-.1” with coverage at 100% of the state. Warm air should be in for most of the event, but we won’t rule out action ending as wet snow, because cold air looks formidable on the backside of the front. We follow that with a dry upper level high pressure dome holding over the state through the 6th, keeping cold air in over the region.

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