Our cold front came into the state about 6 hours earlier than we were looking for yesterday and overnight. No biggie…that means its farther east and south already this morning. The moisture that was with it is trying to exit Ohio, but we still find ourselves dealing with some lingering spits, sprinkles and some wet snow flakes. This should be gone by mid to late morning in the east, and we should see clouds breaking in the west this morning. Colder air is here, no doubt about it, and it will stick around for about 36 hours, through most of Thanksgiving Day tomorrow. Temperatures will be below normal in the period, but we see no major travel issues and we should be able to see more and more fields get fit for harvest.
Temps begin to rebound later tomorrow night, after we are all digesting some turkey. Temperatures should be back to normal and above normal levels for Friday and the rest of the week. Strong southwest winds will again be the harbinger of the moderating push, and as such will mostly likely mask the warmth some…just like Monday and the first part of yesterday. Dry weather will continue through the weekend. We may still have to look out for some clouds Saturday afternoon as a strong low moves across MI and into Ontario, but the track of that low is farther north. Still, we have a concern that this low may drag some clouds down into northeast Ohio Saturday, but the rest of the state should be precipitation free. Keep an eye out for a little bit of light rain with 30% coverage in NE OH Saturday. Colder air returns on the backside of the low cool us back down for Sunday and Monday.
Southwest winds are back as we move into midweek next week, taking temperatures back up. However, we are removing the threat of precipitation for next Wednesday, moving our forecast drier again. So, this continues the window of opportunity for drying and completion of harvest.
Without that chance of rain at midweek next week, we may not see our next chance of moisture developing until December. A front for the 1st through the 3rd not nearly as big of a player, given the drying of the atmospheric profile and dominant high pressure. We are not going to remove precipitation completely yet, but will pull it back dramatically, posting only a few hundredths to .3” over 50% of the state. There is a good chance we completely remove this system in a few days, giving its current state of relevance.
For the rest of the extended period, we continue to watch a very strong front for the 6th, and may pull it forward into the 5th. This may be why the early December system is fading…its moisture and energy is getting pulled into a later system. Time will tell, but we are initially going to project .25”-.75” rains over 80% of the Corn Belt. However, this being a good 2 weeks out…there is plenty of time for the system to modify and change track. So, we are just watching with elevated interest right now.
Overall, even though there was a little more moisture yesterday than we would have liked, our forecast is still for a fairly dry pattern going forward through at least the next 10 days. After the heavy rains of this past weekend, this has to be looked at as a good thing. Temps also do not look as cold as we had feared a week to 10 days ago.