We will work through a little bit of a lull today, but we are nowhere near being done with rain from this system yet. Action today looks to be limited to far southern Ohio, where we can see a few hundredths to a tenth or so. Most of the state will just see clouds, mild air and not much else through the day. Winds may try to work higher in the afternoon.
Rains are back with more frequency and intensity tomorrow. We continue to look for scattered showers through the day bringing .1”-.5” but are raising coverage to closer to 70% of the state. Rains continue for Sunday, scattered through the first part of the day. But, then late in the afternoon and evening, we have our strong cold front, the final wave of action, starting to move into NW parts of the state. The front continues its march south and east through the overnight Sunday night and through Monday midday. We are raising rain totals from this event as we are concerned about thunderstorms and locally heavy rains. We are calling for half to 1.5” rains from the late Sunday through Monday midday period by itself. The map above shows a snapshot of action at midnight Sunday night. While thunderstorms have the potential to be strong, we also think we need to keep an eye out for severe weather in a few spots. We do not think there is a severe weather threat for the entire state, mostly just north central and northwest. The timing of the frontal passage in a large part of the state will be such that it is just not quite conducive for widespread severe action.
Behind the front, later Monday afternoon and evening, we see much cooler air spilling into the state. We may see some rain action lingering late in the day and the evening over far southern Ohio, as the front is slowing some as it pushes down there. But, still most action should be done by midnight Monday. An upper level system skirting the OH River to the south will throw some clouds up into southern Ohio for later Tuesday night and Wednesday, but at this time we do not think it is a big story. The state should be mostly dry, but cool, with mixed clouds and sun from midweek on into the weekend. There will be an upper level disturbance crossing the great lakes and triggering clouds over areas north of US 30 overnight Friday night into Saturday, but those clouds likely do not ramp up to be precipitation makers.
In the extended period, a monster system is coming together for the 14th into the 15th. This storm complex brings rain potential of half to 1.5” back to Ohio with coverage at 90%. This system will provide another slowdown in field work. With regard to temperatures, we stay above normal today through Sunday, cool off Monday and will be near to below normal for most of the rest of next week. Ahead of that system early in the extended period, we see temps bounce back up for a couple of days (12th-13th) and then fall dramatically at mid-month on the backside of the system. We should start off the second half of November with below normal temps.