Keep the umbrella handy today. A weak cold front moving across the state this afternoon and evening, and we still expect it to trigger some minor precipitation. Right now we have no reason to deviate from our thoughts of a few hundredths to a tenth or two, most of the state will be in the lower part of that range. In fact, if we get just a little lucky, we can escape with just spits and sprinkles in many areas. Still, we are moving coverage up to near 80% of the state getting at least a little wet, and only SW OH has a chance of completely missing out. There just is not a lot of moisture to work with here. Action is done by midnight tonight, and we should see a decent sunrise in most areas tomorrow morning.
Dry weather is back behind the front for tomorrow through the weekend. Most of the state will see that dry weather continue a 4th day on Monday. However, we still see some precipitation threats trying to sneak into far northwest OH. This will come from a warm front moving through WI, northern IL, and MI, and the bulk of the fringe action gets wrung out in northern Indiana Monday morning and midday. But, there is a good chance at least a little bit of it makes it into a 4-8 county area in NW OH, west of Toledo and perhaps as far south as Van Wert. The rest of Ohio will be dry for Monday. Temps will moderate through the weekend and should be nicely above normal Monday, even in areas where it rains.
Strong southwest flow pumps plenty of moisture into the second southern low on Monday as it moves across MO and into IL. That part of the system will bring rain to us after midnight Monday night and Tuesday. We continue to look for our best rains in this period, with .25”-.75” over about 70% of the state.
Clouds break up overnight Tuesday night, and we should be dry for the balance of the week, Wednesday through Friday. While there is a threat of some lingering moisture still in far southern OH Wednesday, that threat looks to be easing farther south, so coverage may be down to 10% or less of the state currently. We expect Canadian high pressure to nose into the western Corn Belt, and while we never really fall under the influence of that high, we see it blocking any moisture or systems coming in from the west and northwest. Overall, we only see 2 systems in the next 10 days – what we see today, and then Tuesday of next week. The map above shows combined rain potential over the next 10 days.
No significant change in the extended forecast period this morning, except to push back our next system just a bit – about 12-18 hours or so. We now have a weak upper level circulation moving into the great lakes closer to the 10th, but it has potential of only a few hundredths to a tenth or two. The rest of the period looks mostly dry, but colder. Northwest flow will keep temps closer to and below normal as we move toward midmonth.