No change in the pattern or the forecast this morning. We are dry and cool through the rest of the week and the weekend. We may see a few clouds sneaking into extreme southern OH this afternoon and evening as a stronger system passes by south of the Ohio River, but we do not see any major precipitation threats. By the same token, a few clouds may work in late Sunday as the remains of a front coming out of Indiana work in here. But, all moisture from the front will be used up by the time it gets here, so we are keeping our forecast basically dry. Temperatures today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday, and we will see cooler weather still tomorrow. In fact, we see our coolest air in over the state for the second half of the week. This will come as dominant high pressure settles over the region. The map above shows temps as they relate to normal for Friday afternoon (Friday’s highs).
We remain dry for Monday and Tuesday. The best chance of rain in the next 10 days comes at midweek next week. On Wednesday, the 15th, we have a front coming in from the north and west that has the potential to trigger .1”-.4” rains over about 50% of the state. We like the best chances north of US 30, with some chance north of i-70. However, the southern half of the state probably sees only clouds from this event. This can be just a precursor to a stronger cold front that moves in for the 17th and 18th, but models are in dramatic disagreement on that circulation again this morning. For now, we only have confidence in the action for midweek next week.
The rest of the extended period looks dry, outside of that chance of action for the 17th and 18th. Where high pressure sets up later next week over the Corn Belt will be key to where that extended period system goes. IF the high builds in over IA, WI and northern IL, that will likely keep the system farther south and a complete miss for us. But, if the high sets up farther north, and especially farther northwest…that will likely allow for a track right over the state. So, stay tuned.
Temps will be cool this week as we mentioned, but we look to be mostly below normal next week too. The exception will be as that system arrives at midweek. There could be some good south flow ahead of it, and that may take temps up to normal or even slightly above normal levels for a day or two. But, then we are back at the cool stuff for most of the second half of November.