No change in the short term forecast through next Tuesday. Behind the front that moved through yesterday, we have dry weather in for today, tomorrow and Sunday. Temps will be normal to above normal for daytime highs, but normal overnight (which is much cooler than we have become accustomed to recently). Sunshine will dominate through the period.
Monday we start to see good southwest winds develop and most of the state will see another dry day with sunshine slowly followed by increasing clouds. Yesterday we mentioned our concern about some fringe moisture working into far NW Ohio for Monday. That moisture looks less impressive this morning, but we still can’t completely rule it out. Our feeling is that most of it will stay well west and north of us. But, there will at least be some clouds around as early as Monday morning and we still won’t rule out action over about 30% of far NW OH. Again, most of the rest of the state stays dry for Monday, but it gets windy and clouds increase through the day.
Our next cold front arrives Monday night and goes through Tuesday and into very early Wednesday. Rain totals look to remain in that .25”-.75” range with coverage bumped to 90% of the state. We actually think that all areas have a really good shot at seeing at least the lower end of the range. Winds will be very gusty Tuesday as the front moves through. We won’t rule out 20-40 mph sustained winds. The map above is a snapshot of potential action Tuesday night. WE think the 1” rain totals projected by this model are overdone, but the spread and progression of the moisture is right in line with our thinking.
A few tweaks to the rest of the 10 day forecast this morning. Behind the front we try to dry out, but we also see significantly colder air blasting into the region. This cold air comes on north winds, coming right across the great lakes region. We think now that we will see plenty of clouds in due to this lake enhancement, and we can’t even rule out some lake effect snow on Wednesday far northern Ohio. This can also trigger some light scattered rain showers off and on for Wednesday farther south over Ohio. Moisture availability is not significant…only a few hundredths for the most part, but we can’t rule it out. Coverage will be 40-50% or less.
Clouds will stay part of the forecast through Thursday and Friday too as north winds continue, but they will not be as strong. We expect some sun, but not the bright, sunny set up that is expected here today and this weekend.
The extended period has an upper level trough digging in over the eastern half to third of the country. This will keep temps on the defensive, mostly below normal through mid-month. IT also will mean we expect a pattern similar to the second half of next week right on through the 11-16 day forecast window. Our very pleasant finish to fall is about to become a little less pleasant as we move deeper into December.