No change in thought process this morning. Snow is pushing off to the east this morning, with action only around over the eastern third of the state and leaving quickly. The best snows are already in the Appalachians. We stay cold for a couple of days behind last night’s clipper system as north winds dominate, but temperature moderation going to attempt a push into the state this weekend.
High pressure behind the system keeps us dry today into most of tomorrow. We have to keep an eye on some lake snow potential both days, but that mostly lingers in the northeast. Sunshine should be a dominant player over central, western and southern parts of Ohio, but clouds will likely hold firmer up north. Temps will continue to moderate statewide Saturday, with only north central and northeast Ohio staying closer to freezing.
Sunday looks wet, but not until later in the afternoon. Strong southwest winds will be in to start the day Sunday, and rains push in for midafternoon over western Ohio, spreading east from there. We like rain totals of .25”-.50” over about 90% of the state, Models are in disagreement on whether we see a secondary push of moisture after midnight Sunday through midday Monday that can bring a little more liquid. Either way, it will be a nice little batch of rain that will get rid of most snow cover.
Monday afternoon we go drier behind that system, and we stay dry through Thursday morning. Temperatures moderate through the period, and will be normal to even slightly above normal by midweek next week. Our final front of the 10 day period arrives late next Thursday afternoon into Friday the 22nd. This front again brings mostly rain, as the cold air waits to arrive until after the moisture is gone. We look for a few hundredths to .3” of rain over 70% of the state. That system will be the one that puts the nail in the coffin for a white Christmas, unless cold air can come faster.
Dry for the 23rd into the 24th. Extended models are suggesting a potential late Christmas Eve system that goes through Christmas day. This system does not have as strong of characteristics this morning, but we are not going to remove it from the extended forecast window completely. If it can survive, and if the air is cold enough, we still may have a chance at a white Christmas…but for now those thoughts have to go on life support.