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Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — December 6, 2017

Ryan Martin 12-6-17

Much colder air has moved into the state and will park here for a while. West winds today will not be as strong as yesterday, but will still bring the potential for some good lake effect snows in far northeast parts of Ohio. Most of the state will be dry today with sunshine, but those west winds will be able to pick up some good moisture along the fetch of Lake Erie. Tomorrow, winds move back more to the NW, and that will increase lake effect snow potential along the southern shore of the Lake. However, this moisture does not look to go very far, so again, most of the state will see little to no precipitation tomorrow and sunshine will be a big player in all areas…even working through in some of these lake effect areas. Friday looks to be back to more of a westerly wind, and so just a mix of clouds and sun expected there.

For the weekend, a reinforcing shot of cold air is coming. Saturday looks to have a mix of lake enhanced snow up north and a weak clipper like system moving through as well. This can bring scattered snow showers to a good chunk of the state…perhaps up to 70% coverage. We won’t rule out accumulations at this time, but the best chance of those right now look to be in central and southwestern parts of Ohio, which is not our typical coverage of snow. We see better sun chances on Sunday, and it will not be as cold. However, we think lake effect snow chances hold on in far NE Ohio again.

For next week, we start with strong southwest winds, and that will take temps up somewhat. We may end up near normal or even a degree or two above normal on Monday. But, we have scattered snow and flurry action pushing back in for Tuesday and Wednesday. A good part of that action will be lake enhanced with limited geographic scope, especially Wednesday. But, Tuesday we will not rule out hit and miss spats of snow across the state. Still, at this time, we expect little to no accumulation.  We have delayed our midweek system about 36 hours this morning, allowing for a mix of clouds and sun Thursday, before snow develops overnight Thursday night and hangs around through Friday.  This weak clipper event may be able to yield minor accumulations, but it is far out near the end of the 10 day window, so we will reserve judgment on that for a later time.

The extended period shows an upper level low sitting over the region and the great lakes Saturday the 16th, that keeps a chance of scattered snow showers and lake effect snow in for the first half of that weekend. Then a strong cold front sweeps in from the west and northwest late on the 18th into the 19th and has nice moisture flow up the front from the south. This can bring liquid equivalent precipitation of up to half an inch to the state with 90% coverage. Temps will be the key…if we stay cold this would be the first good snow system for the state. However, we think a better solution is for the strong southwest flow to warm temps as the moisture arrives, meaning we start as good rains, for the 18th and then action ends as snow on the 19th. But…we will see how the system progresses.

Overall this forecast can be summed up as cold, and rather dry – even with snow chances, there is not a lot of moisture to work with here for the next 10 days.

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