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Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — January 12, 2018

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Rains continue this morning in Ohio, and likely will wait until early afternoon to begin to switch over to snow in all areas. Rain totals are impressive, and we are raising our rain totals across the state to .4” up to 1.1”, with the heaviest rains around the Youngstown area. Those rain totals are for the entire event, meaning they go back to any of the light action that tried to develop late yesterday and then overnight. Rain coverage this morning will be upwards of 70%. AS we move toward midday, we see the changeover to snow happening rather quickly in most areas. A small corridor from Columbus up to Youngstown may see a brief period of freezing rain and minor ice accumulation. But, snows come quickly and can be rather significant. We are lowering the bottom end of our previous range a bit, but keeping the top end, looking for 4”-10” snows over the state with the exception being NW Ohio, where 2-5 inches are possible. In northeast Ohio, we won’t rule out some 12 inch totals here and there. The lowering of the bottom end of the range is due in part to better rains coming so far, meaning we have spent more of our available liquid in rain over some areas, so snow totals may struggle to get all the way to 5. Winds remain an impressive feature with this storm.  Strong NW winds are averaging 15-30 as they push into NW Ohio, and will hold on through the rest of the afternoon, tonight and early tomorrow while the snows fall. This will bring blowing and drifting snow, along with poor visibility during snow period. We still think that east-west roads will suffer the worst fate, especially if we hit even low to middle part of our snow forecast range. We expect wind chills this afternoon to be 5 above to 5 below, and overnight tonight we could be well below zero with our wind chills.

No changes to the remainder of our forecast this morning. We won’t rule out some lake effect snows over northern and especially northeast parts of Ohio to finish the weekend. We can see minor accumulations along the south shore of the lake, but bigger totals in far NE OH. A fairly strong clipper system moves through the region Monday into early Tuesday that brings a coating to 2 inches to about 50% of the state. Temps will return to cold levels, looking at normal and below normal temps for the entire week. Northern areas will be in the teens and low 20s through out, southern areas should be solidly in the 20s and flirt with the lower 30s from time to time. A strong system comes in out of the southwest late next week, Friday into Saturday. It is looking more organized this morning, and may be able to bring several inches of snow into Ohio overnight Friday night and Saturday. We will continue to monitor this storm.

In the 11-16 day period, we have a weaker front around the 21st into the 22nd that bring some snows up to 2 inches, and then a stronger system for the 26th and 27th that has some bigger snow potential. Our pattern looks to remain somewhat active through the reminder of January.

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