No change in our outlook this morning. Snow will be leaving east and southeastern parts of the state this morning, and we should see sunshine work its way in through the day. Do not let it fool you, though…we have some very cold air in here, with temps in the single digits and subzero in some areas. A similar set up will be seen 24 hours from now. Dry air holds through the day tomorrow and Thursday, and on Thursday we see winds go more west and slightly southwest. That will bring the first signal that we are seeing a change. Friday we may get back closer to normal for this time of year.
Winds really pick up out of the southwest over the weekend and that will take temps up dramatically. While we expect to see all parts of the state above freezing and a very mild push to be in for the period, we do not think it quite reaches the levels that we saw at midweek last week, when records fell in many parts of the eastern Corn Belt. Still, the warming will be enough to make our next round of precipitation come as rain. Scattered showers will be with us over northern parts of Ohio through Sunday, with rain totals of no more than a few hundredths to a tenth or two. Southern parts of the state see nothing but clouds. Then for Monday, we have some good rains moving through .We are leaving rain totals alone at .25”-.75”, but dropping coverage back to around 90%. Here is an updated maps showing a snapshot of action for next Monday morning.
Our extended forecast is unchanged as well. We see temps cooling just a bit for next Tuesday, but impressive cold air is not likely. Instead, temps stay near normal for most of next week. South winds are back at midweek, suggesting that another strong system is in the works out in the plains. We can see scattered showers trying to move into southern parts of the state going into next Thursday, the 25th, but think this is just a little bit of warm front overrunning ahead our next strong system. That one shows up as we kick off the 11-16 day period. We have a massive system exiting the 4 corners region late Friday, the 26th, moving east-northeast over the coming 2 days. This system should arrive here closer to the 28th, and will have liquid equivalent precipitation potential of half to 1.5”. Currently, the track of the heaviest action (the stronger of two lows) is well south of us, crossing the Deep South, but a system like this needs to be watched as it evolves. Behind it we likely see cold arctic high pressure returning for the finish of the month and start of February. The cold air should come in stages…the initial push behind the front for the 29th and 30th, and then a colder shot behind a clipper we think could emerge around the 31st into the 1st.