Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — January 4, 2018

Lake effect snow is still a story in NE Ohio today. In fact, we won’t rule out lake snows in these typical areas right on through tomorrow and into the start of the weekend. We can see accumulations north and east of Cleveland, and light snow and flurry action can pop up from time to time over the next couple of days along the south shore of the lake. In general, this action will not make it any farther south than US 20. The rest of Ohio will see mixed clouds and sun, with no major weather issues. A cold front worked in overnight, so we look for colder temps the next couple of days, and subzero temps are not out of the question, particularly tomorrow morning, over northern and central parts of Ohio.

Temperatures will moderate dramatically this weekend. Strong south winds kick up later Saturday afternoon and continue through Sunday. Those winds bring temps up ahead of our next system. We expect to see a mostly dry Sunday, with precipitation not starting to nose into western and southwestern Ohio until after sunset Sunday evening. The system brings precipitation in for Sunday night and Monday. We still like a track of the low to the south and east, and we are also seeing a slight decrease in overall total available moisture. We still have action starting as snow Sunday night through Monday morning. There can be some mixing and changeover to rain in the southwest and west central part of the state, Monday morning but an all-out rain event is not likely. As cold air returns behind the cold front, we do not see as much snow potential – moisture is already leaving to the east by that time. We are reducing our total precipitation range to a liquid equivalent of .25”-.5”.The map above shows total liquid equivalent precipitation for the event.  The highest end of the range looks to be over southern and southeastern Ohio. This means we see snow in a lot of the state, but should be able to miss out on any absolutely epic snow storm development. Our official snow totals will be out tomorrow morning, but we are leaning toward a 2-5 inch range over basically all of the state.

Arctic high pressure comes in behind the front for Monday night through Thursday. This will take temperatures to below normal levels through most of the week. A front slowly works into the northern half of the state for next Friday. Cold air from the north butts up against moderating air over southern Indiana and into southwest Ohio. We expect snows, potentially several inches worth, from I-70 northward, and the best snows actually could be along and north of US 30. Closer to I-70, we may see an attempt at mixing with a bit of rain. Generally, the southern half of Ohio misses out. Liquid equivalent precipitation totals can be from .2”-.4”. Coverage will be at 90% of areas north of I-70.

The extended 11-16 day forecast window starts with a nice front around the 14th, but this front has lost a good deal of its moisture. It likely is being robbed by the front for late next week. Still, we can add a little more light snow to the area. Cold air holds through mid-month, but with a strong upper level ridge building over the western US, we think that eventually, we will see a bit of a “thaw” the second half of the month, before another arctic blast takes over.

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