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Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — January 5, 2018

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Today looks very similar to the past two days over Ohio .Wind chills are a factor this morning as yet another wave of bitter cold air has settled in. Temperatures will struggle to work through the teens today. Tomorrow we should see temps start to work a little higher, and full south flow will bring temps up to near normal levels for Sunday ahead of our next system.

We have no changes to the outlook of that system, short of knocking its arrival time back just a bit this morning. WE think the precipitation from our next storm complex waits to develop in earnest until after midnight Sunday night. Then precipitation continues through the overnight, and through most of Monday. The track still suggests mostly snow over Ohio, with a little bit of light rain trying to mix in well south. Our official snow totals are as follows: 2-5” over 90% of the state. 2-3 inch totals will be seen in most locations, and the 4-5” snows will likely be limited to an area bounded by a triangle between Chillicothe to Cambridge to Marietta. We will see better snows here than our neighbors to the west will…as Indiana totals look to be mostly in the 1-3 inch range (just for comparison)…that is what the farther south and east track (vs. what we saw early in the week) has done.

Drier, colder Arctic high pressure comes in behind the front for Monday night through Thursday. We continue to look for temps to drop to below normal levels for that period. However, we do have some changes for later next week. Our next front has changed its orientation somewhat, and we think we can see strong south winds develop late Thursday afternoon into Friday that will take temperatures up in a hurry. We could see some significant snow melt going in to Friday. The front will also bring another round of precipitation, with liquid equivalent totals of .25”-.5” from Friday night through Saturday. While we expect some rain to try and mix in, particularly south, we will be keen on seeing where the good snows set up.  Right now we look for several inches next Saturday, with the best snows near the lake. Precipitation coverage next weekend will be 100% of the state, and snow coverage could be upwards of 80% once again.

The extended 11-16 day forecast window has knocked out next front back to the 15th, but it still does not have much moisture with it…only a few hundredths to a tenth or two, so we do not expect anything more than minor snow accumulations. Farther in the period, though, around the 18th, we have another strong front sweeping in from the NW. That front has liquid equivalent precipitation up to.75” with excellent coverage over the state. Temperatures will be the key to the forecast though. Each of these systems over the next 2 weeks have strong south flow with them, and temps that may be able to slowly work higher. So, these extended systems, especially ones with good moisture content, have a chance of bringing better rain potential to the area instead of snow. Temperatures will be what we look closely at as this forecast pattern evolves.

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