Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — February 13, 2018

Nothing spectacular in our forecast today, although we should see temps climb a good 5-8 degrees over yesterday, getting back near normal for this time of year. We continue to see southwest winds develop through the afternoon, and that gives a signal that this warm up is just beginning. Clouds will likely start to develop later this afternoon and tonight. Above normal temps will be seen tomorrow, and we have to keep an eye out for some minor precipitation. We won’t rule out a few scattered showers over the state, particularly late tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow night. Rain totals will be a few hundredths to .4” with coverage at 70% of the state.

A second wave of action pushes in from the west and southwest Thursday afternoon and evening and goes through Friday. This will be where we see more significant moisture. We are looking for 1-2 inch rains from over 85% of the state from Thursday afternoon through Friday early afternoon. While we do not have as big of concern about thunderstorms, this will still be an impressive batch of water, and we still think that localized flooding will be likely seen, particularly in areas with significant snow melt and frozen ground as of today.

Much colder air comes in behind that system to start the weekend. However, it does not last long term. A cold night is expected Friday night, leading to a chilly start on Saturday. But, west and southwest winds are back over Ohio by midday Saturday, and we should see temps move back to near normal levels for Saturday and above normal levels then for Sunday. We will be dry through the entire weekend.

Next week is damp, with scattered showers likely from overnight Sunday night through next Friday. Several waves of light moisture will move through. The first, overnight Sunday through Monday will bring A few hundredths to a third of an inch over 90% of the state. Tuesday’s action stays mostly over NW and north central Ohio, and then tries to sag southeast slowly on Wednesday, not making much headway. In those areas, we can see half to 1.5” rains. Then Thursday, the front pushes across the rest of Ohio and brings half to 1” rains to 80% of Ohio. We follow that up with some drier air for a day or two. Temps will be mostly above normal all of next week, leading to increased rain potential. This is a wet upcoming pattern. The 10 day cumulative rain totals map is updated above.

In the extended period, we likely see a clipper for Sunday the 25th. That fast moving system can bring some scattered snow, or perhaps some rain mixing with snow. The much stronger front remains targeted for the 26th and 27th, bringing liquid equivalent precipitation of half to 1.5” over the entire state. Right now south flow ahead of that system would indicate rain potential, but the timing of the cold air arrival will be the key going forward.

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