No change in today’s outlook. We will be sunny, mild and dry! However, we are having to make a few changes for tomorrow. The wave that we were hoping would stay south into KY is pushing farther north over Indiana, and some of that may try and make a run in here tomorrow afternoon. We will keep rain potential of .25”-.5” in over the southern third of Ohio tomorrow, but may have to allow some spread up closer to the I-70 corridor. Clouds tomorrow do spread all the way across northern Ohio, so while temps remain mild, we will not get the benefit of additional direct sun warming. We can’t rule out a few spits and sprinkles in northern Ohio ahead of sunset tomorrow afternoon.
Our next strong, well organized system still is not arriving Thursday midday and afternoon. Low pressure tracks from central IL through NE Indiana and into the thumb of Michigan for Thursday and brings rain totals of .25”-.5” to 80% of the state during the afternoon and into the evening. While we will be in the warm sector for most of the Thursday afternoon period, we still think there is a strong likelihood that the precipitation ends as snow over northern Ohio Thursday overnight into Friday morning as cold air races in behind. Right now we will open the door up to some 1”-4” snow totals from US 30 northward, and there is potential for more as the system interacts with Lake Erie, particularly in NE Ohio. The best accumulations will be north, with southeast Lower Michigan possibly getting pounded…depending on timing. Snow is done by Friday morning, but winds continue to look nasty Thursday night and Friday. We think the winds are the wild card, and have the potential to make this a very dramatic event. We can see winds up to 20-40 mph, which would make any snow up north an absolute pain to deal with. These snow totals and this snow potential is just a working process right now…we will hone in on a more specific forecast tomorrow morning.
No change for the rest of the forecast. We go back to drier weather for Friday through next Monday morning. High pressure will slowly work through the Sunday. Cold air holds over the region to finish the week and start the weekend, only moderating once we get south flow on the backside of that high.
A cold front brings rain back for overnight Monday night through Tuesday midday, the night of the 5th into the 6th. Rains do not look as impressive this morning, and will mostly be from .25”-.5” with coverage at 70% of the state. Colder air follows on the backside.
The extended period has us mostly devoid of new precipitation to start, through the 9th. Then we have 2 significant waves moving across the eastern Corn Belt from the 10th through the 12th. Combined, these waves can bring half to 1.5” rain totals, and likely will deliver below normal temps around mid-month. Still, the pattern does not look nearly as active as what we just got done with this past week…so we should be seeing improvement in our drainage conditions through the next couple of weeks.