Rain moves into southern Ohio today. The best action develops this afternoon over the southern third of the state, but we will see clouds and a few scattered showers all the way up to the I-70 corridor. Rain totals in the south can be .25”-.75” with 70% coverage from I-70 southward. Northern areas really do not see anything other than clouds, except for a few scattered showers near the lake shore in north central Ohio closer to this evening. Southwest winds through the day today will keep things mild for one more day.
A strong low lifts out of central IL into northern Ohio tomorrow. Notice that this track of the low is farther south. That puts bigger rain potential into our next of the woods. We are raising rain potential tomorrow to .25”-1” with coverage at 80% of the state. The rains go through the entire day, and will look to change over to snow through the nighttime hours tonight. We can see a coating to 2 inches from US 30 northward, and in NE Ohio, where the lake enhancement is the greatest overnight tomorrow night, we cans see some snows over 3-4”. The European model is by far the heaviest on snow, and the GFS is downplaying the entire event. We think the answer lies somewhere in the middle. Strong winds will be the major problem, though. Winds should be 20-40 mph tomorrow night on the backside of the low. This will bring the cold air in fast (hence the changeover to snow) and create serious visibility issues along with low wind chills. Tomorrow night will not be a good night to be out.
By midday Friday we are dry, but cool. We stay dry and chilly through Saturday and start to see some temperature moderation Sunday. Next Monday will bring moderating temps.
Scattered showers look less impressive this morning for next Monday night into Tuesday. WE are dropping rain totals back to a few hundredths to .25” over 805 of the state. The best chances come right around Tuesday morning. But early afternoon, action is already off to the east.
We can see some light snow and flurry action as north winds come across the lakes on Wednesday, but in general, if we miss out on the light snow and flurry potential, we will be dry through next Friday, but definitely colder. WE should see temps mostly normal to below normal through that period.
The extended continues to show scattered precipitation for the 10th through the 12th. While action does not look as impressive, we still are leaving the door open for .25”-.75” across the region. We then have a weak wave for the 14th that brings a few hundredths to a quarter inch, and then a low over the great lakes for the 15th that brings .25”-.5”. Temps will be chilly to start the 11-16 day period, but will moderate to near and slightly above normal levels by mid-month.