Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — February 9, 2018

Two dramatically different forecasts this morning over Ohio, depending on where you are. Over NW Ohio, snow is falling and will fall through most of the day. We don’t think this snow makes it much farther south than US 30 in NW Ohio. However, the action then kind of tails off farther east. We still see some good snows across Lake Erie, and up into Canada, but over north central and northeast Ohio are not as likely, as temps climb to near freezing. Farther south, clouds hold between US 30 and I-70 though a large part of the day, but south of 70, we can see some sun. In fact, lots of warm air is surging north over Ohio, and we could see three quarters of the state at or above freezing for highs this afternoon. Back to NW Ohio, snow totals there can be 3-8 inches down to US 20, and 1-3 down to US 30. But, again, snows tail off the farther east you go. The moderating air coming up over a large part of the state means this snow up north and west will be of the heavy, wet variety, which also weighs on our forecasts this morning. The map below shows snow accumulations through early tomorrow (Saturday) morning.

We are not done with snow after this. In fact, we have a cold front that sweeps through tomorrow and Sunday that can bring an additional 1-3” to 80% of the state. This front brings in much colder air to the south, and should leave minor snow accumulations all the way down to the Ohio River. The biggest snow totals will run over the northern half to third of Ohio for the weekend.

Bitter cold air is still on the way behind that frontal complex. We expect to wake up to subzero temps over almost all of the northern half of the state Monday morning. South of I-70, temps will also be chilly, but should remain in the single digits to low teens. Sunshine will dominate as we move through Monday. After the cold start to the week, we have temps moderate a bit Tuesday, before a front sags in for Wednesday. Cold air comes in behind this front and dominates over the northern half of the state, but south of the front, we see some moisture interacting with the front over the southern half of the state, and we think we need to put some .05”-.25” rains in for Wednesday morning and midday, from I-70 southward. Cold air races in quickly behind the rains. High pressure dominates next Thursday and temps climb again on Friday. We do have some scattered light snow showers possible overnight Friday night into early Saturday, mostly over the northeast quarter of the state. On Saturday, rains start to lift into Ohio for the afternoon. This will kick off an active pattern that goes right through the extended period.

We see no change to the extended pattern, and expect it to turn more active again. Right now we are eying 3 systems in 5 days. One for the 17th-18th brings rain to start mixing with and changing to snow, and liquid equivalent precipitation of a quarter to half inch. On the 20th we see half to 1 inch of moisture coming through (liquid equivalent) and on the 21st we can see 1-2 inches of liquid, potentially coming as mostly snow. We should end the 11-16 day period with dry and cold weather through the 24th.

180209

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