Not a lot of moisture around over the next week or so, but we can’t sit back and call our forecast completely dry either. Clouds will be on the increase today, and we can see a couple of waves of very minor moisture trying to move through from tonight through early Wednesday. Our next good chance of precipitation does not arrive until early next week, but this week will feature several minor boundaries moving through and the big key will be very pesky cold air.
Today we see clouds this afternoon build as an upper level trough dips into the region after passing through NW Great Lakes. This trough has very little useable moisture with it, but it will bring clouds and slightly colder air. Precipitation is most likely tonight. We can see light snow and flurried in NW Ohio near sunset, and there may even be potential for a fresh coating in a few spots the closer you get to Toledo. Most of the moisture availability is limited to a few hundredths to one tenth of an inch, meaning we can see sprinkles and flurries tonight, mostly north of I-70. There will be nothing south.
As cold air tightens its grip on the state tomorrow, we have a second wave of minor moisture to deal with. We have to keep an eye out for a few spats of flurries across the state, but look for no accumulation. This minor moisture may be able to hold on through tomorrow night into early Wednesday in eastern parts of Ohio. Temperatures will be below normal.
We flip back to dry, sunny weather by Wednesday afternoon and that holds through Thursday and Friday. However, without strong south flow, we think temps will remain on the cooler side, mostly normal to below normal. The weekend looks dry now, with action Saturday staying south of most of the state, just like we saw yesterday. South flow will try and moderate temperatures just a little bit.
A strong low moves into the region next Monday into Tuesday, the 19th into the 20th. We see good rains with this system, and temperatures will be warm enough indeed for all rain. Totals will be from .25” to .1” with coverage at 100%. We dry down Tuesday afternoon and stay dry into the first half of the extended forecast window.
The next chance of well-organized precipitation comes for Sunday the 25th, with a strong low moving from the Oklahoma panhandle up into northern Michigan. This will put us in the strong south flow part of the circulation, meaning temps should rise and we see the threats of .25”-1” rains, including some thunderstorms. Coverage will be nearly 90% of the state. The extended pattern stays active with another system a few days later for Tuesday the 27th. This system has a similar track and can bring .25”-.75” to 80% of the state. The heaviest rains out of that event split, with one tracking north into Michigan, and the other staying south of the Ohio River. Still, it looks like we may finish March on a much more active note.
Temperatures over the next 10 days do not look like anything special…in fact we see mostly a cool bias through this week and weekend, and would expect mostly normal to below normal ranges into this coming weekend. This means we can’t quite seem to kick Old Man Winter out just yet.