Our forecast pattern is basically unchanged this morning for the near term. We have at least 2 more dry days statewide, today and tomorrow. Temps will be near normal, but winds stay brisk enough for us to feel a chill. We should see temps climb into the 40s and low 50s.
Our weekend wave is trending a little farther north this morning. Generally, this is part of a low pressure circulation that’s moving from IA and northern MO into the OH and TN valleys, on its way to becoming yet another potential “nor’easter” for the east coast early next week. But its track is farther north, and so we have to allow for a few hundredths up to a quarter of an inch of rain up into SW Ohio, perhaps up to the I-70 corridor through Columbus and toward Zanesville. The action will not be all that impressive, but with this move north, we can expect clouds to be more dominant Saturday morning and midday over the rest of the state. Still, we are better off than our friends to the west, who now expect a damp start to the weekend over a much bigger part of the state than what had been talked about. We should see sun break back out there for late Saturday afternoon
We are dry for Saturday night, Sunday and Monday now, with sunshine and blue sky back in over the state for Sunday, even for the first part of Monday. Clouds arrive late Monday afternoon, and then Monday night we see scattered showers moving in over southern Ohio. Through the overnight and Tuesday, this action builds north, and will bring rains of .25”-.6” to nearly 100% of the state. Cold north winds will be in on the backside of the low, and that means. Strong north and northwest winds keep lake effect snow potential in here for all of Wednesday morning, and we won’t rule out some accumulations up north through Wednesday. This will look similar to the setup we had a couple days ago Tuesday and even this past Wednesday morning: cold air and a nice lake effect set up…but this time we have more moisture in the atmosphere to start with, thanks to backside rotation behind this strong low.
Clouds give way to sunshine next Thursday as snow moves out, and we have full sun on the way for Friday. But, it will be cool. Then a front starts to work in for the 24th that has plenty of south flow ahead of it. That should take temps slightly above normal, and then also allow for good rains to fill in later Saturday afternoon through Sunday. We can see .25”-.75” rains for the 24th-25th with coverage at 70%.
The extended pattern shows a strong circulation still for the 27th and 28th. Models suggest we can see the gulf bring up some nice moisture into this low, triggering moderate to heavy rains. It’s early but we are considering raising our rain totals for that part of the forecast period to 1-2 inches, based on a track right across from central MO to Toledo. There is plenty of time for this to change, but this may be a wet finish to the month of March.
The rest of the extended period will try and confirm that, as another front is being projected for arrival around the 30th.