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Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — March 19, 2018

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Wild swings in temps and precipitation will be seen this week as Mother Nature and old man winter just refuse to be sent home yet. We will see both spring like and winter like weather this week, but eventually, we should finally work our way into more stable, spring-like action next week.

Today, strong east winds will be seen over the state in advance of our next storm complex. This storm system will pass by mostly to the south the Ohio River late tonight through tomorrow. However, we do still see some precipitation working into far southern Ohio tomorrow, mostly in the central southern tip of the state. WE will allow for scattered action all the way up to I-170. But, coverage up near I-70 will be only 20%-30%, while down closer to the river, we see 80% coverage. Rain totals near I-70 will be a few hundredths, but down in south central areas near the river, we can see closer to half an inch. Areas north of I-70 will see only some clouds through the day tomorrow.

Colder air comes in on the backside of this system once again. Strong north winds will be seen at midweek on Wednesday. These winds will trigger some wrap around snows in Ohio, with the biggest potential areas for snow in central and southeast OH, the next highest threats in NE Ohio and SW Ohio. NW parts of the state likely miss out. But, the key factor here in the snow development is cold air coming in on the backside of the low, and the strength of the system, turning into a nor’easter for the east coast at midweek. We do not think there is going to be a lot of snow potential…but we are not wanting to overlook this threat either. Cool temps hold through Thursday, and temps moderate some by Friday as south winds arrive ahead of the next front.

That system moves in for Saturday midday through Sunday morning. Rain totals will easily be .25”-1” over the entire state. The upper end of the range will be in central Ohio, right near the I-70 corridor. There we can see a slightly higher threat of thunderstorms Saturday night…although the best energy will be farther west where we are able to feed off of afternoon heating, in Indiana. Here we don’t think things will be quite as active overnight Saturday night. All rains will be done by Sunday noon and we are in fact looking at full rain here, with temps staying closer to normal and perhaps even a bit above normal during the event. The map above is a snapshot of potential precipitation for Saturday evening.

Dry for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of next week. A strong front will be coming together to the west for Monday into Tuesday, but it slows and stalls over IL Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. There is moisture potential in that front of .25”-1” and it could hit all of the state…but the movement of the system is interesting. IF it stalls for more than 24 hours…that would put way too much rain over areas to our west, but could also rain the storm out before it finally gets here. We think that this storm will likely pick up the pace and move right on in for Wednesday afternoon and overnight, and we like those .25”-1” rains here at midweek next week, with a dry finish for Thursday and Friday.

The rest of the extended window has a system for Easter weekend on the 31st and 1st, bringing .25”-75” rain potential to about 70% of the state. However, temps look to stay normal to slightly above normal for the entire extended period.

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