We are leaving the forecast pretty much along in the short term this morning, and will make just a few minor chances for the intermediate and extended period. In fact, the extended window has the most uncertainty this morning, because longer range models can’t seem to make up their minds. Still, we have a pretty nice set up here over the next week, with limited moisture, and temps that will be mostly seasonal.
We are dry and colder today as cold air comes in out of the north behind the front that passed yesterday. There can be some lingering light snow in NE Ohio this morning, aided by some lake enhancement, but it looks to move quickly off to the east. Most of the major headlines today will be about the storm as it hits the east coast, with weather weenie’s new catch phrase “bomb cyclone” making another appearance. This is just an over sensationalized storm complex…but we digress. Temps today will be normal to below normal for this time of year over the entire state. We see the dry weather continue through the weekend and next Monday, with temps gradually moderating through the period. We should be rather mild next Monday ahead of our next weather system.
That minor front mover through from Monday midnight through Tuesday midday and continues to have very little impressive moisture. We are leaving rain totals for that event alone this morning at a few hundredths of an inch to no more than .25” over about 90% of the state. We likely see clouds breaking for a little sunshine in there for later Tuesday afternoon, but don’t look for that to be something that stays for any length of time. Much colder air comes in behind that front and will likely trigger plentiful clouds for Wednesday. We expect to start the day with light snow and flurry action in NE Ohio, but in general, the temps look to warm here for much snow. We think that is a bigger point of discussion off to our west in Indiana. We will have to deal with clouds, spits, sprinkles and the occasional flurry statewide through most of Wednesday. Temps will be below normal and the clouds give a very winter like feel.
We do stay cold Thursday but see sun return, and then we moderate our temps next Friday and Saturday.
Our next system arrives next Saturday afternoon and evening, pushing moisture into Sunday the 11th. We expect .25”-.75” rains over the entire state for that period. However, where things get complicated is there at the finish of the 10 day period and into the extended. Computer models seem to be at odds over the progression of moisture, and at times at a loss on timing. We are seeing flip flops back to a wetter period for the 12th-13th-14th. At this time we are going to leave our forecast mostly alone, but allow for .25” to .75” total rain in that 3 day period, and then look for a stronger system for the 16th, as we alluded to yesterday. Now, if the system on the 16th is able to strengthen, it will rob moisture from that 3-4 day window ahead of it…so that is why we are wanting to trend drier for the 12th-15th…because we think that the system on the 16th has the best chance of coming together in a moderating pattern. But, time will tell, and we will revisit this next Monday.
For the time being, we are looking at a fairly nice weekend, and most of next week will be dry. The action Monday night into Tuesday is almost a non-issue.