Not a bad start to the week. It’s a little chilly, but we have a nice batch of sun once again. Do not be deceived, though: this week will feel much more like winter than spring. A strong storm complex moving out of the northern plains this morning, tracking across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes, bringing some moisture and significantly colder air to the region. In fact, we will spend most of this week below normal on temps over a majority of Ohio.
So, running through it, we start with plenty of sunshine across the state today. Winds will slowly move more to the southeast this afternoon and should increase in magnitude which may allow for a few more degrees on the topside of our temperatures than what we saw this past weekend.
Clouds thicken up tonight and we see scattered precipitation breaking out over the state after midnight. With the timing, we think it is likely that most of the precipitation starts as wet snow, except southwest Ohio. We can see light, wet snow through sunrise Tuesday morning, and there can be some rain or sleet mixing in south of I-70. Moisture availability is such that we don’t think there will be much accumulation, but perhaps we see a fresh coating in some spots north of I-70 on cars and grassy surfaces. Liquid equivalent precipitation will only be a few hundredths to a tenth or two with coverage no better than 60%. The biggest issue will be the speed at which the cold air comes rushing in.
The cold air looks to park over Ohio for most of the rest of the week. Cold dominates tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday at least, and there is a chance we don’t really even get to break free on Friday. The map above shows temperatures compared to normal at midday on Thursday. With the cold air tomorrow night and Wednesday, we have just a little bit of moisture coming back that can trigger some light snow and flurry action over 60% of the state. We think we can see a coating to an inch or two in a large chunk of Ohio, and in NE Ohio, we can see 2-4” in lake enhancement areas. The snows for midweek look better here than to our west, and that is a testament to the cold air that sits over the top of us. Wednesday will likely be a day with some travel and weather challenges. Temps will struggle to break the lower 30s tomorrow, Wednesday and Thursday over nearly all of the state. Only far south central Ohio has a chance to run toward 40. Thursday we should see sunshine reappear over western Ohio areas, but we stay chilly right on through Friday.
Saturday we see a system working by to the south. This will bring clouds to the southern half of the state, and some scattered showers from I-70 southward. The heaviest rains will be in far south central Ohio, near the river, where we can see up to a quarter of an inch. The rest of areas that see scattered showers will be more like a few hundredths to a tenth or to. The closer you get to I-70, the lesser chance of rain we have Saturday, and north of I-70, we should stay dry. Another surge of rain brings up to half an inch of moisture to southeast Ohio Sunday, but the rest of the state just features a mix of clouds and sun.
The rest of our 10 day window looks pretty dry, and south winds moderate temps nicely. We have full sun and dry weather in for next Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. High pressure will be in place at midweek next week, and should promote sunshine on into the second half of the week. The high may drop temps just a bit for midweek, as it looks to have Canadian origins. But still, it is a big pattern improvement over this week. We do see a significant front in the extended period around the 17th. The low passes by to the NW and that is where the heaviest precipitation will be (in the upper Midwest) but we still think we have to look for .25”-.75” rain potential across Indiana. We follow that up with another stronger storm complex for the 19th into the 20th.