Light snow and flurry action holds on over parts of Ohio today. Generally, we are seeing the best chance of snow flying in north central and northeast Ohio, and the best chance of accumulating snow will be in northeast Ohio, due to lake effect help. We can see a couple of inches up there through the day. The rest of the state stays cold, but should also be dry, with sunshine trying to break free in SW OH. We are watching a drier forecast pattern emerge for the weekend an most of next week. High pressure moves into Ohio late this evening and will dominate through midday tomorrow. Ahead of the high, winds will be out of the north and northwest, drawing down cold air (like today). But, as winds turn south on the backside of the high, we should see temps moderate a bit over the weekend, moving to normal levels and even slightly above as we move into next week. A strong storm complex is moving over the Deep South and Tennessee Valley tomorrow, and we won’t rule out some clouds sneaking into very far south central parts of Ohio tomorrow. Those clouds can trigger a few spits and sprinkles, but that is the only part of the state where we see any threat. The rest of us should be sunny and dry.
Warmer air is in for Monday with strong southwest flow, but we have a minor trough sweeping through for Tuesday. This trough has no significant moisture associated with it. However, colder air coming in behind the trough will cause clouds to become more prevalent into Tuesday and we can’t rule out a few spits and sprinkles due to the fact that colder air cannot hold as much moisture as warm air. Coverage will be very minor, and in reality, we think we stay dry in many areas. We just are not able to guarantee a fully dry day. Dry air does hold for the balance of the week next week, right on through Friday.
Next Saturday, a cold front moves in from the west, and will bring .25”-.75” rain potential to about 70% of the state. We are calling this kind of coverage because we see some significant holes potentially developing in the moisture as the front slides through. The front moves through the entire state, but precipitation will have some hit and miss characteristics. This will be the first well organized system in about 10 days, though, going back to what we saw earlier this week from Monday night through Wednesday. The map above shows total cumulative moisture today through next Saturday…but know that 95% of this comes next weekend in Ohio. The heavier totals down in KY and WV are bumped up by moisture this weekend in those areas.
In the extended period, another strong front around the 20th can bring rains of .5”-1.5” to 70% of the state. That system looks like it has a better track, better moisture availability and more strength than our front on the 17th, so we need to be on the lookout there. Still, by the 20th, we will mostly be below normal on cumulative march precipitation.