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Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — April 11, 2018

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After a chilly start, moderating temps should work into the state today. While we don’t see the huge warm up that we expect for tomorrow forward, west and southwest winds will help get temperatures back to near normal this afternoon. Tomorrow we start to see rather strong southwest winds bump temperatures to well above normal. That temperature pattern lasts 3 days…so do not get used to it!

We have low pressure passing by to the north overnight tonight into tomorrow, bringing rain to MI and southern Ontario. This system actually brings a warm front through the region, allowing more south and southwest winds to fuel our warm up. We do still see some minor moisture moving over Ohio tomorrow morning, and we are extending its reach a little farther south in our forecast this morning. Right now we still look for the best rains to be north of US 30, where we can see up to .2” of liquid. But, we see chances of a few hundredths to a tenth all the way down to I-70. This has the best chance of falling through tomorrow morning, and by mid-afternoon everything will be gone…perhaps sooner! In the wake of the moisture, clouds should give way to sunshine and temperatures really start to work higher. We stay dry Friday and it likely will be the warmest day of the week, but clouds will be on the increase. Significant moisture working in for the weekend. Temperatures tomorrow, Friday and Saturday will be 10-15 degrees above normal, but winds from later today through tomorrow also will likely be increasing to eventually 15-30 mph.

Significant rains start Saturday ahead of a strong cold front. That front slows as it moves through, meaning we continue to see at least 2 days of heavy rains. There look to be a few more holes, meaning it won’t rain constant, but there also is no reason to back away from our previous forecast of 1”-2” over all of Ohio, and we do have 2.5” in the back of our minds for areas that see 2 solid rounds of thunderstorms. We see those two chances of thunderstorms now…one Saturday late afternoon and then again Sunday afternoon. We won’t rule out some of those thunderstorms approaching severe levels. The map above shows potential precipitation through midnight Sunday night, but we think this model is a little so overzealous on moisture in NW Ohio. Colder air starts to come in on Sunday afternoon behind the front. This will be a very marked change, with winds going NW at 15-30 mph, and our late spring weather will change back to late winter in a hurry.

Clouds and cold air dominate Monday. In fact, we can see some sprinkles and flurries through the day. It will be a cloudy, gray, damp day to start off the following week.

Cold temps dig in for most of the rest of the week. We will be back to temperatures that average 10-15 degrees below normal, powered by NW winds. This will keep clouds coming at us out of the great lakes, and that also means, while we expect dry weather through the end of the week, we won’t rule out sprinkles and flurries from time to time, particularly over the northern half of Ohio. Down south, we probably see nothing.

For the extended period, we are drier for the 21st through the 24th, as a Canadian high dominates. That means we keep temps cold through the first half of the extended period. A strong front for the 25th brings southwest winds and moderating temps, followed by .25”-1” rains over 80% of the state. Behind that we dry down, but this time, we do not see an incursion of Canadian air. So, we tentatively think we may be able to break this colder pattern by late April. The pattern also looks to support a drier period from the 26th through early May. This may be our first significant chance at field work – if it holds. This is over 2 weeks out…and many, many things can change, but we are giving you our read on it the way we see it this morning.

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