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Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — April 17, 2018

180417_RyanMartin

Continued cold today. Northwest winds dominate the landscape, but we at least see a little less available moisture. Clouds will fight for space with sunshine, and we can’t rule out lingering wet snowflakes, mostly over the northern half to third of the state. However, temperatures today should be a couple degrees warmer than yesterday.

Tomorrow will be mostly dry statewide with a mix of clouds and sun. Clouds will be thickening up Wednesday afternoon as our next frontal complex draws close. South-southwest winds ahead of that system should take temps a little higher, perhaps closer to normal. This will, not be a significant warm up, though, and the moderation will be very short lived.

Moisture moves in tomorrow evening and then continues through Thursday. Available moisture is not all that impressive, but we draw our rain chances out over the entire period. We look for a few hundredths of an inch up to .25” with coverage at 80% of Ohio. Everything should be done and out of Ohio by Thursday evening.

We are keeping our forecast dry for the Friday, Saturday and Sunday time period and are also looking to add Monday to this. The system coming up from the southwest does not look as impressive for early next week. Temps stay cool through the weekend, and will start to moderate just a bit on Monday, as south flow starts to develop ahead of that SW circulation.

We our pushing that next system back into Tuesday. We start the day with a few scattered showers in the far southern part of the state, and from there action slowly spreads north. By afternoon we should see chances of precipitation over most of the state. The rains continue off and on through Tuesday night, and Wednesday, finally exiting to the north and east after midnight Wednesday night. Rain totals for the 36 hour period can be from.25”-.75” over about 80% of the state, but most of that coverage will be closer to the .25”. This low stays south a long time before shoots north over us. So, that means we still have to watch this event, as any slowing or strengthening could adjust that track back farther west, and mess with our precipitation totals. But, at the moment, it looks like we catch the most moisture of anywhere in the eastern corn belt with this system. We get drier weather with sunshine for next Thursday after sunrise behind the system.

Strong Canadian high pressure slides into the region at midweek next week, meaning we see a reinforcing shot of cooler air spreading across the eastern Corn Belt. This high promotes dry weather. Then, a cold front works in from the northwest for the 28th and moisture associated with that stalling front can hold through the 1st. As precipitation dissipates for the 2nd, we should see high pressure settle in over the Great Lakes for a couple of days, before another system lifts out of the central and southern plains around May 4th. While we have a few attempts by our atmosphere to moderate between now and months end. For the most part we average 5-15 degrees below normal for the rest of April on the whole. That means soil temperatures will be slower to move…although they will be moving upward. Below is a map of soil temperatures from yesterday. We have some work to do – and if our soil profile stays damp, it will be tough progress very quickly.

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