Moisture holds on over Ohio through midday today. Clouds will yield scattered light showers, drizzle and even some snowflakes today. The best chance of snow comes in NE Ohio, where we see the coldest temps this morning and we also have some lake interaction. However, temps quickly move to a level to support all drizzle for most of the morning. By early to mid-afternoon everything should be well to our east, and clouds should start to break up We feel that most of the state will see pretty good sunshine potential before sunset. Temperatures are chilly today, but not as cold as earlier in the week. And, we should see some slight improvement from here.
We expect dry weather for all of tomorrow, the weekend, Monday and Tuesday of next week. Models threw a new wrinkle in late yesterday, bringing a stronger system out of the northern plains, across the upper Midwest and into the eastern Corn Belt next Wednesday afternoon. Here, we see that wave merging with the small chances of moisture we had kept in over the state coming up from the southwest. The two entities combined now look to give us some decent moisture at midweek. We generally do not like to change our forecasts based on one model’s look at things and after just a model run here or there. But, we are seeing some confirmation this morning from other models, and our analysis of the set up falls in line with the consensus too. We are going to have to insert some bigger action potential for next Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night and even Thursday. Rains will likely be from .25”-1.1” over 90% of the state, and action will not be done until closer to sunset Thursday evening. This moisture will come at a time sure to disrupt thoughts of field work after the previous 5 day dry stretch. The map below shows a storm total for this event as of late Thursday afternoon.
We go back to drier weather for Friday. A minor batch of clouds move over the state overnight Friday night into Saturday, and that could trigger a shower or two, but precipitation will be limited to 25% coverage and totals of a tenth or less…so not a big deal. Better rain potential develops later Saturday afternoon, the 28th into the 29th, where we can see up to .25”-.66” over about 80% of the state. Like the system before it, this system looks to focus a little more on Ohio, honestly, than it did earlier in the week.
A strong front sets up over the Corn Belt in the May 2nd to May 4th time period. This front does not have a lot of movement with it, and may stall over the region until a stronger low is able to move up it. That will allow for scattered showers through the period. Right now, the best rains stay west of us, but this is a highly unsettled pattern, so we could end up having to raise rain totals here. Suffice to say, the start of May has the potential to be wet, and it would not surprise us to see moisture hold into the 5th.
Temperatures are still chilly today, but moderate some over the weekend. We should see temps getting closer to normal, but they will not exceed normal. We still have a bias of at least 5-7 degrees below normal on average now through the end of the month, which is better than we had been…we feel our worst cold is behind us.