Dry weather continues through Monday. Temps will be climbing slightly through the dry stretch, but will not really exceed normal. Most of this is due to the fact that we really do not see any significant south wind over the weekend, and see more easterly flow, which does not promote strong warming. The set up will produce some drying, but time will tell if it is enough. The same can be said about a rise in soil temperatures.
As the narrative has been pretty much all week, the Tuesday-Wednesday period next week really is the major point of consternation in our forecast. Rains look to push farther north on Tuesday into Indiana, but here we see mostly just renegade moisture that may be content to stay in cloud form through Tuesday afternoon. Down near the river, we likely have to allow for scattered showers Tuesday morning but we are reluctant to talk up action of any major intensity father north. We will allow for the occasional spit and sprinkle across the rest of Ohio. On Wednesday, scattered showers pop up with a little more frequency, but still not much intensity. AT this time, we will put rain totals for the 2 days combined at a few hundredths to .8”, with the higher totals near the river, and general no more than a tenth or to over most of the state. Heavy rains are not too far away, though, sinking down into West Virginia (up to 2”!). The map above shows rain totals through Wednesday.
Behind that weak moisture outbreak, we dry back down Thursday, Friday, Saturday and a good chunk of Sunday. This is where precipitation from the Tuesday-Wednesday period becomes more important. If we get very little those days, this second 4-day window will allow for more field work potential. However, if moisture totals build, this window will be probably not long enough. We will keep our fingers crossed, because the extended period is shaping up to be very wet, and very active.
Then we kick off the extended 11-16 day forecast window with rains of .5”-1” across 90% of the state for later the 29th and 30th. We take a brief break for Tuesday May 1st and also the 2nd, but we really still have plenty of clouds possible and a damp overall feel. Then heavy rains are back for the 3rdthrough the 5th, with half to 1.5” possible, and there is an outside chance for some isolated 2” totals. Coverage of those early may rains will be 100% of the state.
So, short term, this completely dry window we have through Monday is about the best we can do. Conditions will be breezy through the weekend, so spraying may be limited to early morning or early evening hours, if at all. The key to our entire field work outlook is 2 days…next Tuesday and Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates.