A little bit of rain in the forecast for today, as a cold front works through the state starting this afternoon. The best chances for moisture come this evening through early tomorrow morning, but that does not mean action is limited to that time. There will be some scattered showers starting as early as past noon in parts of NW Ohio. Still, the better chances of rain come with the highest moisture saturation, after sunset tonight. We are keeping moisture totals at a few hundredths to .a tenth or two over about 70% of Ohio.
All action is done by tomorrow morning. We may start the day with clouds, but things clear up rather quickly. We should see a dry weekend emerge, but much colder air is in behind today’s front, and that means we see temps fall off. Tomorrow will be a good 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year, and we will see temps dip to below freezing in parts of northern and central Ohio overnight Saturday night into Sunday. So, there can be some patchy frost. This will be aided by clearing Saturday night too. Temps begin to bounce on Sunday with sunshine, and we continue to climb from there. With southwest winds returning to start the week, we see temps climb to their first above normal level by next Tuesday and Wednesday as we knock on the door of 80 degrees up north and move into the mid and upper 80s farther south. This warming will be ahead of our next front for the second half of next week.
That front is on track to bring rain and thunderstorms starting Thursday. Rain totals Thursday will be from .25”-1” with coverage at 70% of the state. To get to the upper end of the range, thunderstorms will be needed and the best chances of those, as it stands right now, is in west central and Northwest Ohio late Thursday night. Then, we see rains hold on, perhaps through the entire day Friday over southern and eastern Ohio. This can add an additional .25”-.75” from I-70 southward. Northern parts of the state do not see much of any precipitation Friday .There can even be some diminishing rains early Saturday for us, as this system looks to have somewhat of a long tail. But, Saturday action will be limited to only a tenth or two. We should be dry for the balance of the weekend with clearing starting Saturday afternoon. But, we will be cooler once again. The map below shows total rains through the end of next week, the majority of which comes from that front next Thursday and Friday.
For the extended period, we have a minor disturbance moving over northern Indiana and Michigan for the 7th, part of a stronger low in the upper Midwest. The track right now looks like it will keep all moisture out of Ohio, but for NW parts of the state, this is a feature we will keep our eyes on. A front for the 9th looks stronger, bringing .25”-.75” to 80% of the state, and then we will be watching a wave coming out of OK and AR on Saturday the 12th, as it may hook right across the state before the day is done. That system would have potential for strong to severe thunderstorms if it holds together and tracks correctly.
After the front next week, as we mentioned, we cool off. We expect those cooler temps to hold through the extended window, where we see temps mostly normal to below normal.