A soggy day for us today as rains move across the entire state. The heaviest rains this morning will be in southern Ohio, and later this afternoon and evening we see that threat farther north. Thunderstorms can happen and there even is an outside chance we see some strong to severe weather, although it’s not a big chance. We actually see better threats of thunderstorms farther west this afternoon. Rain totals remain on track to be from .25” to 1.25” over 100% of the state. Temps today will be above normal, making the only day out of the next 10 to have that kind of temperature profile. The map above shows total precipitation potential through tomorrow morning.
Much colder air is on the way in for tomorrow. This cold air begins to blast in overnight tonight, but we think most of the moisture will be gone before it gets here. Rains will be trying to exit the eastern third to quarter of the state tomorrow morning, while light snow flakes can start to develop in NW Ohio .Generally, though, the northeast and north central parts of the state look like the best areas for snow development tomorrow, mostly due to lake enhancement. We won’t rule out wet snowflakes tomorrow from US 30 northward, but will be straight up and say that coverage will be limited to no more than 30% of that part of the state. The rest of the north just sees flakes from time to time. South of US 30, we just see the cold air dominating at from midday on. Temps will struggle to hit the mid-30s in the north Wednesday afternoon, and the mid-40s south.
Thursday should be dry statewide, and we see some sun in there. But, minor moisture moves across the state overnight Thursday night through Friday morning. This little wave brings scattered light rain and snow showers through, but liquid equivalent precipitation will be limited to a few hundredths to no more than .2”. This can have an equal threat of rain or sloppy wet snow. The rest of Friday will feature clouds giving way to sun.
Saturday and Sunday look to be mostly dry. High pressure moves across the state Saturday and we have some minor south winds in for Sunday. Still, cold air rules the weekend, and we see only minor moderation in temps for Sunday. South and southeast winds do develop Sunday afternoon ahead of our next system to start next week, allowing temps to get back closer to normal.
Next week still looks to start damp. Monday we have moisture returning, but temps are colder again with strong NW flow. That means we can see wet snow, and perhaps a bit of rain mixing in. WE have to look for a coating to an inch or two over about 60% of the state for Monday. The cold lingers behind that initial system and yields a second batch of action for Tuesday. That wave will be limited mostly to the southern half of Ohio. We can add another .4” of liquid to the equation, and some of that may give an additional coating to 2” of wet snow. Cloudy skies will be seen north for next Tuesday.
Mostly dry but still chilly next Wednesday, and then finally heading into Thursday, we have south winds starting to moderate temps a bit. We could get back to near normal for daytime highs by late next week.
The extended forecast is largely unchanged this morning. Our next system still looks to develop out of a low moving over the eastern Corn Belt for the 13th. This system is farther south than 24 hours ago, and therefore is likely a less drawn out feature. WE still will look for .25”- 1” of rain across for that time period, but can expect drier weather for the 14th and 15th. A weaker front arrives on the 16th, with the potential of .1”-.5” of rain for Ohio. Finally, expect a strong spring storm complex for the 18th, and rain totals look higher. Right now we will project half to 1.5” rains out of that system.
So, while we have some tweaks, generally our thought process is unchanged this morning. Cold and damp will be the buzzwords through the rest of this week and through midweek next week. Then, we continue to see a fairly active precipitation pattern, even when temps start to moderate a bit. Nothing here makes us change our thoughts on potential field work in the next few weeks at all.