Dry weather today, tomorrow and Wednesday. After a very chilly start yesterday where we saw frost over in parts of northern Ohio, and very chilly air (for late April) even down south, we are going to see temps steadily work higher. In fact, we expect back to back above normal temperature days tomorrow and Wednesday! Upper 70s to low 80s can be seen over Ohio thanks to nice southwest flow ahead of our next front. Relative humidity values will be low, and evaporation rates will be near the maximum .25” of moisture per day. This will be a great field work set up.
Our next rain event kicks off Thursday mid to late morning with an approaching cold front. We are lowing rain totals a little this morning in parts of the state, as it looks like some of the intensity we were concerned about last week is shifting. Right now, we are looking for scattered showers through the day Thursday and Friday. We are lowering our rain totals over Ohio because we think that we end up missing out completely on strong to severe thunderstorm potential. The threat will be close by, but we think the system gets all the strong weather worked out long before it gets here, back west over Indiana and Illinois. We even see some thunderstorm threat up into Michigan. But, not so much here. That is something we will continue to monitor. But, for now, all told, we are putting rain totals and coverage at .1”-.9” with coverage at 90%. To get rain totals over an inch, you would have to see thunderstorms, and the best chance of those now looks to be farther west, and even a bit north, as previously mentioned. Still, the front for thusrsday and Friday will be excellent for crops that have just gone in the ground. The map above is combined precipitation from the late week system from am American model. We think the precipitation is over done in terms of totals, but what is of note is the geographic spread…which is very similar to our projections for thursady and Friday.
WE are dry fror Friday night, Saturday, Sunday and next Monday. Temps will cool a bit behind the front, but should stay near normal. Then for next tuesady, we have a minor disturbance crossing the Great Lakes, allowing a minor little batch of mositur to sneak into NW Ohio that can bring up to .25” over about 30% of the area. This disturbance does not look well organized at all. If it can organize further, we may have to bump the precipitation totals, but for now, it’s not a big thing. Most of Ohio sees nothing next Tuesday.
Dry for next Wednesday. A strong system arrives for Thursday the 10th and lingers through the 12th. That event can bring half to 1.5” rains to 90% of the region. As that circulation moves off to the east, we see the remainder of the 11-16 day period mostly dry, as high pressure parks right over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be nearly normal to slightly below normal under that high.