Rains blew past expectations yesterday. We way undershot the level of moisture that ended up coming through. Rain is still trying to exit the state to the east this morning, and even though there was a lot more than we wanted or needed…it does not change the fact that bi-polar Mother Nature has decided she wants more winter.
Cold air started to blast in to the far northwest part of the state early this morning, and will continue to sink south and east through the day. With this cold air arrival, we can’t rule out a little bit of light snow in NW Ohio this morning, and as the day wears on it can become a bigger part of the forecast in north central and northeast Ohio. Most of the snowflakes stay north of US 30, but we won’t rule it out completely in a few isolated areas farther south. In north central and northeast parts of the state, we can see lake enhancement bolster the snow chances this afternoon and evening.
Clouds mix with some sun tomorrow and then another fast moving wave of moisture moves in over the northern third of the state overnight Thursday night. This likely brings light snow and flurries that can leave a coating to an inch from US 30 northward from midnight Thursday night to sunrise Friday morning. The rest of the state looks dry through the daytime hours Friday.
Overnight Friday night through Saturday moisture pushes up over the southern half of the state. This will trigger mostly snow from I-70 southward, and the best accumulations will be from US 50 southward. Liquid equivalent precipitation will be from .25”-.6” meaning we can easily see several inches of snow in the south. Everything is done by Saturday midday.
The Saturday and Sunday look to be mostly dry. High pressure moves across the state Saturday and we have some minor south winds in for Sunday. Still, cold air rules the weekend, and we see only minor moderation in temps for Sunday. South and southeast winds do develop Sunday afternoon ahead of our next system early next week, allowing temps to get back closer to normal.
Moisture is back to start next week. Overnight Sunday night low pressure moves into the state. The system brings two waves of moisture, both triggering mostly wet snow. The first wave from midnight Sunday through Monday brings a coating to an inch or two to about 70% of the state. Then a second wave moves through Tuesday, with more intense precipitation .WE can see several inches of snow over 40% of the state, but there can be some rain mixing in, mostly over the southern third of the state. Still, temps are cold enough for mostly snow. Total liquid equivalent precipitation from the two waves Monday and Tuesday can be .25”-.7” with 80% coverage. We will hone on snow potential more at the end of the week.
We finally put together about 36 hours of dry weather for the entire state from Wednesday through next Thursday midday. Next Thursday afternoon, precipitation is back, but with south winds, temps moderate just enough to be looking at all rain. Temps will not be above normal, but will not be quite so cold.
So, to put it in blunt terms, we see no day over the next 10 with temps above normal, and 9 of them will be below to well below normal. This colder surge has caused us to have to talk up snow much more this morning, and lessen our thoughts of rain. Soil temps will stay in the 30s through mid-month…and there can be no talk what-so-ever on field work through mid-month either. It’s not what we want to hear, but it is the truth. The precipitation forecast may get tweaked, but make no mistake…the pattern is cold and damp. The maps below show total 10 day snow accumulations (now through next Friday) at top, and total 10 day liquid equivalent precipitation at bottom.