Dry and warm today and tomorrow. Southwest winds take temps up well above normal for the first time in weeks. We will see low relative humidity, high evaporation and excellent drying.
The timing and overall set up of our next rain event is unchanged. We have rain moving into NW Ohio by late morning, and then spreading across the rest of the state through Thursday afternoon and evening. However, we think that far southern parts of the state may actually end up rain free for Thursday, allowing for an additional day of fieldwork. Rain will get there eventually, but we think it just waits till closer to midnight Thursday night. The rains continue off and on across the state through Friday and into very early Saturday morning. We are leaving rain totals over Ohio unchanged this morning at .1”-.9” with coverage at 90%. Thunderstorms look to stay mostly farther north and west up into the thumb of Michigan. We won’t rule them out down in northern Ohio, but think the threat is low. Really, this will be a pretty good rain event, with most of the state falling in the half to 1 inch range. The map above shows rain potential through Saturday morning.
We are dry for the balance of Friday through the Saturday. AT this point, we see clouds and a little moisture trying to develop for Sunday, but we hesitate to put much action in yet. We will take a look at additional data tomorrow morning and make a decision on whether we need to insert a quarter inch of liquid for the latter part of the weekend. Either way, we are dry again for Monday. On Tuesday, we still see the potential for a few minor spits and sprinkles near the Michigan line, but nothing anywhere else. There can be a few hundredths to a tenth or two around.
Dry for next Wednesday. A strong system arrives for Thursday the 10th and lingers through the 13th. That event can bring half to 1.5” rains to 90% of the region. As that circulation moves off to the east, we see the remainder of the 11-16 day period mostly dry, as high pressure parks right over the Great Lakes. Temperatures will be nearly normal to slightly below normal under that high.