Ohio Ag Weather and Forecast — May 10, 2018

Rain today will yield .4” or less over most of Ohio. While thunderstorms are not likely today, we will keep an eye and ear out for the occasional rumble of thunder or flash of lighting. Mother Nature seemed to get most of that out of her system late yesterday and last night off to the west.

We continue to see scattered, off and on precipitation chances through the end of the weekend and first half of next week. Scattered showers move back in over the northern half of Ohio tomorrow midday, and go through at least midnight tomorrow night. From I-70 northward, we expect .1”-.5” with coverage at 70%. The heaviest rains will be in NE Ohio. South of I-70 we just see clouds and sun for your Friday.
Scattered shower return Saturday afternoon from US 20 northward. Rain totals will be from .05”-.4” generally, but there is a threat of strong to severe thunderstorm action again in NE Ohio near midnight Saturday night. Those storms can easily produce 1”+ rain totals.

Showers move south during the day Sunday right on through midday Monday. Rain totals from this wave will be .25”-.75” with most of the state getting a half inch or under. Coverage looks to be around 60%.

We do dry out for a bit from Monday night through Wednesday morning. There will be sun for the daylight hours Tuesday and Wednesday morning.

Rain redevelops late Wednesday afternoon and then we see action strewn about Ohio through Saturday afternoon. Combined rain totals for the period will be .5”-1.5” with coverage at 90%. Thunderstorms could raise those totals, if they develop with any significant strength or frequency. The map above shows 10 day rain totals for Ohio from the GFS model…these are over done…we think we get about half to two thirds of this over the coming period. But, still, you see that the entire state is going to get field work delay inducing rains between now and the end of next week.

We should be dry for next weekend, but then in the extended period, we are watching a front sliding in from the NW around the 21st. We are leaving rain totals alone with this front, looking for .25”-1” and 80% coverage. The rest of the extended period looks interesting, as one model tries to bring the remains of a tropical disturbance right up into the Indiana area for the 23rd and 24th. While we won’t completely rule that out, we have problems with that solution because 1) the model that is really ramping this up is one that is notoriously awful at projecting early season tropical storms in advance, and 2) any storm that makes it all the way north like this is shown would have to be rather large and strong…not a feature one would expect with any May tropical disturbance. So, while we are not jumping on this at the moment, we will watch it. In fact, if a front does come through on the 21st, any tropical storm that would try and move north would likely end up using that front as a corridor to move along…and it should be well out of our area by the 23rd. We’ll see.

While the moisture is hit and miss over the next couple of weeks, temps still look to be mostly normal to above normal over Indiana and the eastern Corn Belt in general.


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