Today looks very similar to yesterday. The setup is the same. Strong southwest winds bring temps to above normal levels. Low humidity will bring more drying. This will be the last dry day before our front arrives.
We are leaving our forecast for tomorrow and Thursday entirely unchanged. Rain starts around mid to late morning tomorrow morning as an approaching cold front works into Illinois. However, the front is relatively slow moving, as it still has a couple of pulses of low pressure to move up it through Friday. Scattered showers hold through the rest of tomorrow afternoon and Friday. The best chance for stronger rain and thunderstorms will be overnight tomorrow night, but the threat is minimal at this time. We are putting rain totals at .1”-.9” with coverage at 90%. Thunderstorms look to stay mostly farther north and west up into the thumb of Michigan. We won’t rule them out down in northern Ohio, but think the threat is low. Really, this will be a pretty good rain event, with most of the state falling in the half to 1 inch range. The map above shows rain potential through Saturday morning.
We are dry Friday overnight and Saturday. Clouds and a little moisture are back on Sunday, particularly in the afternoon. WE will keep an eye out for a few hundredths to a tenth or two over Ohio on Sunday, and potentially we see coverage at 70%. We are still not convinced this is a good disturbance to watch, but it has been pretty resilient over the past few model runs, so we are opening the door for some action.
We are dry again for Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and the first part of Thursday. That dry stretch is why it we are very interested in the potential of rain on Sunday…because if we happen to miss it, we should get another field work window!
Rain is back for next Thursday afternoon (the 10th) and we see on and off moisture holding through the 13th. That multi day event can bring combined rain totals of half to 1.5” with 90% coverage. As that circulation moves off to the east, we see the remainder of the 11-16 day period mostly dry, as high pressure parks right over the Great Lakes. Temperatures still look to be early normal to slightly below normal under that high.