Rain and thunderstorm action moves across Ohio today and tomorrow. Rains moved into NW Ohio a little sooner than we had been looking for last night. Strong thunderstorms were seen to the west and north, but there was no drift southward out of the moisture. The early storm outbreak was driven mostly by the heating of the past couple of days, creating an unstable atmosphere. The front is still at least 24 hours from passing through Ohio. Today, rains will work through most of the state and will feature general showers and garden variety thunderstorms. There is a threat of strong to severe thunderstorm action in western, central and southern Ohio later this afternoon and overnight tonight, but we still think that the chances of strong storms are not as good farther north. Scattered showers linger through Friday. Rain totals will range from .3”-1.3” over 100% of Ohio. The map above shows our expected distribution of moisture combined through Saturday morning.
We are dry for Friday overnight through Saturday, and then the pattern gets a little more interesting. We are making some changes this morning to our outlook from Sunday on. The nearby will be similar to ideas we have floated the past few forecasts, but farther out, we are projecting a much more active pattern. Scattered light showers move in Sunday afternoon with clouds ahead of that. Moisture is not all that impressive, but we won’t rule out up to .25” of rain over 60% of the state for Sunday afternoon-evening and overnight. There may be a little action Monday, but in general, we see clouds slowly give way to sun. Then we are dry Tuesday and Wednesday.
Rain on Thursday brings potential for .25”-1” over 90% of the state. Then we are dry for Friday. There is a chance for half to three quarter inch rains on Saturday, then going dry Sunday. Showers are around in the 11-16 day extended period for Monday the 14th with potential of .25”-1”, and then again possibly on Thursday, the 17th, with minor totals. The problem is, the only system out of those 4 that we have good model agreement on is the one for next Thursday. The rest of them are shown on different models at different times. However, the every other day to every 2 days set up is a common one we see in spring over the eastern Corn Belt, so we will not discount it at the moment. Even if we miss one of those, though, the result is the same…we do not see a long, consecutive dry period like we just got through at all over the coming 2 and a half weeks.