Sunny, dry and warm today and tomorrow. Temps above normal, excellent drying, and winds will kick up out of the southwest, averaging 10-20 mph at least.
Precipitation breaks out tomorrow night. WE don’t think there will be significant rain in
Ohio until closer to Midnight, but we can see some scattered showers trying to nose into NW Ohio after sunset tomorrow. Rains then continue off and on through mid to late afternoon Thursday. . The threat of thunderstorms looks minor this time around, as the timing of the best moisture and strongest part of the front is overnight, where there is not much outside heat energy to help trigger storms. We are looking for rains out of the event to come in at .25”-.75” with coverage at 70% of the state. Many areas will be at a half inch or less. By Thursday evening, rain is done in most of the state. We continue to see a secondary wave moving across the Upper Midwest into the great lakes for Friday and Saturday. While most of the precipitation is likely to fall over the Thumb of Michigan, Lake Erie and southern Ontario, we can’t rule out action into far northern OH. Leaving a chance of clouds and scattered showers in the forecast down to about US 30 is probably overkill at this point, but we will not a few hundredths to a tenth or two up north.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are in for late Sunday afternoon, Sunday night and the first half of Monday. WE can see rains from half to 1.5” with strong to severe thunderstorm potential. 90% coverage of rain is expected out of this event. The strong thunderstorms look to be most active in SW and central Ohio from midnight Sunday night through Monday morning. All action is done by Monday afternoon.
Dry weather is back for Tuesday and Wednesday. A weak frontal boundary lifts up from the southwest for Thursday the 17th, bringing .1”-.4” to about 50% of the state. The map above shows total rains through the next 10 days. The bulk of this comes tomorrow night through Thursday and then Sunday night into Monday.
Going into the extended 11-16 day forecast window, we have a stronger cold front sweeping into the state closer to the 20th bringing rains of half to 1.5” over 90% of the state, and then a reinforcing wave of energy brings additional rains up to 2” for late the 21st through the 22nd.
Temperatures the second half of this week will pull back closer to normal, and then move slightly above normal levels heading into next week again, before that front develops on Thursday. We do expect a significant temperature correction behind the strong thunderstorms that are possible later this Sunday.