Another round of moisture lifts into Ohio today, and we look to have some good coverage of moisture. A strong batch of showers and thunderstorms moved out of the central plains into Missouri yesterday. This action has continued to move east and will be tracking across the state today. We can add another .25-.5” over 70% of the state. The map is a snapshot of action at midday today. We should see this action moving off to the east by tonight, but likely still wake up to some clouds over far eastern Ohio and western PB tomorrow morning, while the rest of the state sees sun work through the clouds.
Our next front remains on track to arrive Saturday night and spread moisture over the state through Sunday. Rain totals will be from a .1” to 1.0” over roughly 80% of the state. The best chances of the upper end of the raining range will be in NE Ohio, where thunderstorms can develop Sunday afternoon and evening, and where we can’t rule out a bit of severe weather potential either.
We are dry for, Monday, Wednesday and Friday of next week. Temps will be normal to above normal and we should see good sunshine, drying and field work conditions. Tuesday, we have showers sliding down into the northern third of Ohio, coming out of MI and southern Ontario. The action will be up to .3” with coverage at 80% of the area from US 30 northward. The rest of the state will stay dry and will actually see decent sun. Thursday starts with some sun, but we can’t rule out a few scattered showers working over the state. Coverage will likely be under 30%, but we can see a few hundredths to a tenth in those areas. The places that stay rain free should see partial sun and decent drying. Next weekend will be interesting. Models still want to bring in a front for Saturday but have been struggling to come up with a good moisture source for the system. Right now, we will keep the door open to some scattered shower and thunderstorm action, but we want to see better moisture flow up from the south before we get too excited.
For the extended period, we are going to go a little drier. The flow pattern is more west, which does not allow for good moisture support off the Gulf during the period. However, we still can see good heat-based pop up action from time to time. The GFS model is trying to bring another tropical system up the western FL coast around days 13-15, but this model overplays these kinds of features. No other models are even giving hints of this kind of set up. It bears watching, but the American model does really ramp up moisture around mid-month as the remains move into the eastern corn belt. We think this has a very low chance of happening, and we are staying drier this morning.